影響選民的“推手民調”

距離美國大選日還有不到一個月的時間，兩黨候選人在辯論中使出各種招數突出自己、詆毀對方。據說，從上世紀90年代中期開始，美國大選過程中就開始出現一些以影響民意為目的的民調，英文叫做push poll。

Push poll is an opinion poll whose real purpose is to influence people's opinions rather than to collect information about them.

Push poll指以民調之名行影響民意之實的民意調查，這種調查的真正目的不是收集人們的意見，而是影響人們的看法，即“推手民調”。

In essence, a push poll is something approaching a smear campaign masquerading as an opinion poll. A push poll typically involves phoning very large numbers of voters and, in the guise of doing a survey to find out how certain pieces of 'information' may affect their voting preferences, feeding them false or damaging information about a particular candidate. The idea then is to 'push' them away from any rival candidate and steer them towards the candidate that the caller supports.

從本質上來看，“推手民調”更像是偽裝成民意調查的“抹黑大戰（smear campaign）”。這種調查通常會電話聯絡大量的選民，假裝調查哪些“信息”會影響選民的投票決定，而在此過程中向選民灌輸有關某個候選人的虛假或破壞性信息。這樣做的目的是將選民從競爭對手那里“推開”，轉而支持調查方這邊的候選人。

The essential difference between a push poll and a valid opinion poll, is that the latter merely attempts to elicit opinions, whilst the former aims to change and influence them. In a push poll, large numbers of respondents are contacted, but little or no effort is made to collect and analyze response data because no-one is really interested in this information once the phone call is over, the main aim having been to negatively influence the targeted candidate.

“推手民調”和真正的民調之間的本質區別是，民意調查只是為了收集民意，而“推手”調查是為了改變和影響民意。在“推手”調查中，大量受訪者會接到調查信息，但是并沒有人做后續的信息收集和分析工作，因為在調查電話掛斷以后，就沒有人再對那些信息感興趣了。“推手”調查的主要目的是對某個特定候選人產生負面影響。

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（中國日報網英語點津 Helen）

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