Coffee lovers, importers await impact of trade tariffs

For many people in the United States, waking up and making a cup of coffee is part of their daily routine.

But amid a brewing global trade war, a "cup of Joe" could soon get pricier after President Donald Trump said that he was considering raising tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil to 50 percent from 10 percent, beginning on Aug 1.

"The US is the largest consumer of coffee worldwide, with annual imports of beans and ground coffee estimated at around $8 billion," David A. Gantz, an economist at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and a professor emeritus at the University of Arizona, Rogers College of Law, told China Daily.

"By the time coffee is ground, packaged and reaches the consumer at the supermarkets and coffee shops and restaurants, the aggregate impact on the US economy is estimated at more than $340 billion a year," he said.

Around 1.6 million metric tons of coffee were imported into the US in 2024, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.

Brazil is one of the world's largest suppliers of coffee, alongside Colombia and Vietnam. Imports from South America, Africa and Asia accounted for 99 percent of all coffee drank in the US, the USDA said.

Meanwhile, China exported $191 million of coffee globally in 2024, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. At least $18.6 million of those exports were sent to the US, $28.2 million to the Netherlands and $24.8 million to Germany.

Dozens of countries that have not yet struck a deal with the US by Friday could be charged tariffs of 15 to 20 percent, Trump said on Monday.

In the US, any changes to fees on coffee imports, especially those from Brazil, could lead to a drop in imports.

"If Mr Trump proceeds with the threatened 50 percent tariff, coffee imports from Brazil will decrease somewhat," Gantz predicts. "True coffee lovers will probably be willing to pay the increased prices."

US consumers are already paying more for coffee at the grocery store. In May, the average price of one pound (454 grams) of ground roast coffee was $7.93, higher than in 2024, when it was $5.99, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In the US, coffee is preferred over tea, soda and bottled water. Two-thirds of US adults drink coffee each day, according to the National Coffee Association, the oldest and largest trade organization for coffee businesses.

"About 30 percent of coffee imports into the US come from Brazil," Gantz adds. "Colombia and Vietnam are the other major suppliers, but with lower market shares. Minor source countries include Mexico and the Central American countries."

"In the short or medium term, there is no way to replace Brazilian imports," Gantz said. "Increasing world production would take years and require substantial investments. Moreover, coffee from other countries is subject to Trump tariffs of at least 10 percent, likely more, as with Vietnam, it's 20 percent."

Meanwhile, the domestic US coffee industry supports 2.2 million jobs across the country and contributes nearly $350 billion to the US economy each year, the National Coffee Association said.

belindarobinson@chinadailyusa.com