Sino-US trade talks key to global supply chain

Experts have expressed cautious optimism about next week's trade talks between China and the United States, seeing it as an opportunity to build a durable framework that benefits both countries as well as the global supply chain.

Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng will be in Sweden from Sunday to Tuesday for economic and trade discussions with US officials, as agreed upon by both sides, China's Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday.

Chris Pereira, founder and CEO of iMpact, a communications and business consulting firm in New York, said the dialogue is "far more than just another checkpoint in trade talks".

"With both sides having already reached agreements in Geneva and London earlier this summer, this meeting can serve as a keystone moment to build a durable framework rooted in predictability, transparency and mutual economic interest," he said.

"While tariffs remain a potent challenge, the real breakthrough will be in aligning expectations on dispute resolution, technology trade and long-term investment flows. If (the talks in) Sweden can lay the groundwork for that, the impact will be felt not just bilaterally, but across the global supply chain."

The talks come as both countries face an Aug 12 deadline to finalize a lasting tariff agreement. A preliminary deal reached last month helped halt weeks of escalating tariffs, but observers warn that without a more permanent resolution, global supply chains could again face major disruptions.

Last month's London meeting resulted in a framework for implementing an earlier consensus reached in Geneva.

At a news conference in Beijing last week, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said that in essence, China-US economic and trade relations benefit both sides and bring win-win outcomes.

As the world's two largest economies, China and the US share a responsibility to inject greater certainty and stability into global economic prosperity and development, Wang said.

Pereira said that as the Aug 12 deadline looms, mutual confidence in interdependence, coupled with effective communication channels, can help manage political pressures on both sides.

Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said he does not expect a broad escalation of tariffs next month.

However, he cautioned that the US may impose additional duties on some sectors such as pharmaceuticals, and that there could be expected "continuing friction" over high-tech products.

While much attention has been focused on tariffs, both Pereira and Hufbauer emphasized the role of nontariff measures such as technology export controls, future trade agreements and global trade outcomes.

These are "very critical" for future trade deals, Hufbauer said, but a comprehensive agreement is unlikely this year. Instead, he suggested a gradual path of product-by-product negotiations.

Pereira echoed the view. "Tariffs may dominate headlines, but it is nontariff measures like export controls, tech licensing and regulatory alignment that will define the next era of trade diplomacy. Without clarity and compromise in these areas, a lasting agreement is unlikely."

The way Washington and Beijing address these issues could serve as a model for other countries, he said.

"Resolving these issues will not only stabilize US-China relations but also set new precedents for global trade governance," he said.

"As emerging markets grow more central to the global economy, they will look to how Washington and Beijing handle nontariff complexities — as a blueprint for managing their own trade policies."

Contact the writers at liazhu@chinadailyusa.com