Inflation in developed nations raises concerns for US economy

That core consumer price indexes in major developed economies remain high has not only led to disagreement on their future monetary policies, but also increased concerns about their economic outlook, especially about the risk of an economic recession in the United States.

The overall eurozone inflation slowed to 6.9 percent in March, but core prices, which excludes energy, food, and alcohol and tobacco prices, rose to a 5.7 percent record high. The Office for National Statistics showed that CPI in the United Kingdom rose 10.1 percent year-on-year in March, down from 10.4 percent in February but was well above the 9.8 percent market expectation, while core inflation reached 5.7 percent, unchanged from February. The European Central Bank's policymakers are concerned that rising energy costs are affecting various areas of the economy, and that core inflation data could continue to rise.

Japan, too, has struggled with its core inflation figures. Japan's core CPI excluding fresh food rose 3.1 percent year-on-year in March, rising for the 19th consecutive month. In fiscal 2022, Japan's core CPI rose 3.0 percent from the previous fiscal, the biggest increase since fiscal 1981.

Since the new governor of its central bank took office in early April, Japan has frequently sent a prudent monetary policy signal, but in the context of consumption recovery and tight labor market, it is not easy for Japan to check core inflation.

The situation in the US is more typical. In March the US' CPI rose 5 percent from a year before, down 1 percentage point from February, but core prices rose 5.6 percent, up from 5.5 percent in February. The duality of overall falling inflation and rising core prices has increased the divergence of market institutions on the US' future monetary policy.

Advanced economies are facing a somewhat similar conundrum, that is, monetary policy needs to find a solution that balances the interests of all parties by suppressing inflation, avoiding recession, and dealing with financial risks. This has made them keep a vague or contradictory attitude when it comes to monetary policy statements.

It is not surprising that according to a recent survey, 69 percent of adults in the US hold a negative view of the US' current and future economic situation.