China's advantage to avoid 'Japan syndrome'

Eastern European countries' provide a good example of the force of convergence. In the 1990s, these countries were devastated by the shock therapy they adopted during their transition from command economies to market economies. The turning point came when they joined the European Union and adopted the euro, which turned their backwardness into a great advantage. Now, many of them have joined the ranks of high-income countries.

China as an economy represents the whole of Europe. The global financial crisis has given China's inland provinces a chance to catch up with their coastal counterparts. Thanks to the Chinese authorities' efforts to balance the distribution of industries across the country, several inland cities have become industrial centers; they are ready to accept the industries moving from the coast to the inland. Samsung's big investment in Xi'an, Shaanxi province, is but one example.

It is thus highly possible that China will do better than Japan did between 1973 and 1993. But for the inland provinces to close the income gap with the coastal region in 20 years, they will have to grow 3.5 percent faster. And even if China's coastal region registers a 3.4 percent growth, the same as Japan between 1973 and 1993, the whole country would grow by 5.4 percent.

Although it would be much lower than what China achieved before 2010, the growth rate would allow the country to become a much richer society in 20 years and China's per capita real income could reach $28,600 (measured in today's PPP).

Therefore, China is likely to replace the United States as the world's largest consumer market, which by all means would be good news for the rest of the world.

The author is a professor at and director of China Center for Economic Research and National School of Development, Peking University.