Population policy change needs more moves

In 2012, the State Council-funded China Development Research Foundation advocated a three-step reform process: an immediate geographically selective two-child policy, a national two-child policy by 2015, and the removal of all constraints by 2020. At the moment, the reform timetable still seems achievable. But will such changes have much effect?

Evidence seems to suggest that the family planning policy alone is no longer responsible for the dropping fertility rate; other social and economic factors are playing a major role. For a start, we need to see children as social goods and not just as future producers and consumers. In this way, we can try to develop a society which is more broadly supportive of parents and children both. This will require thinking about not just family policies as such, but much broadly about, for example, funding for education, planning and housing policy, the burden of care for older people placed upon couples and so on.

A final thought is that we need to move the conversation on from a fear of a "demographic time bomb" of low fertility, declining population and so-called rapid aging. China's population - both younger and older people - is healthier and better educated than ever. The Chinese economy is more efficient and technologically advanced than ever. And urbanization and the technological revolution have made China an ever more connected and integrated economy.

In this context, the raw numbers of people are arguably less important than the sum of their skills, their health, their education, their work and their families. Instead of being frightened about demographic change, we just need to set about making a better society for all through comprehensive, integrated social reform. Having said that, better support for the (rural) elderly people and ensuring inclusive economic development and innovation must be seen as immediate priorities.

The author is an associate professor in Social Policy, Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford.