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A vendor sells onions in Nicaragua in 2008. Half of the world's population could face food shortages by the end of this century due to climate change, a new study warned Thursday. [Agencies]
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Half of the world's population could face food shortages by the end of this century due to climate change, a new study warned Thursday.
According to researchers, there is a 90 percent probability that by 2100 the minimum temperatures in the tropics and sub-tropical regions will be higher than the maximums so far recorded in those areas.
The effect on crop-growing in those regions would be dire, according to the projections based on direct observations and data culled from 23 computer models on the planet's evolving climate patterns.
"The stresses on global food production from temperature alone are going to be huge, and that doesn't take into account water supplies stressed by the higher temperatures," said David Battisti, a University of Washington atmospheric sciences professor.
In the tropics, the warmest temperatures will cut maize and rice harvests by 20 to 40 percent, the researchers said.
The hotter weather will also reduce the moisture in the soil, cutting yields even further.
Some three billion people, or half the world's population, currently live in tropical and sub-tropical regions, and their number is set to double by the end of the century.
These regions stretch from northern India, southern China to much of Australia and all of Africa, and also extend from the southern United States to northern Argentina and southern Brazil.
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(Agencies)
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一項(xiàng)最新研究于上周四警告稱，由于受氣候變化的影響，預(yù)計(jì)到本世紀(jì)末全球?qū)⒂幸话氲娜丝诿媾R糧食短缺的威脅。
研究人員稱，到2100年，熱帶和亞熱帶地區(qū)的最低溫度將超過(guò)這些地區(qū)迄今為止出現(xiàn)過(guò)的最高溫度，出現(xiàn)這一變化的可能性達(dá)到90%。
通過(guò)直接觀察和分析23個(gè)全球氣候變化模式的計(jì)算機(jī)模型的數(shù)據(jù)，研究人員作出預(yù)測(cè)，氣候變化將對(duì)這些地區(qū)的谷物種植造成十分可怕的影響。
華盛頓大氣學(xué)教授大衛(wèi)?巴蒂斯提說(shuō)：“氣溫本身對(duì)于全球糧食生產(chǎn)的影響將十分巨大，這還沒(méi)有考慮到高溫所導(dǎo)致的水供應(yīng)的問(wèn)題。”
研究人員稱，極端高溫將導(dǎo)致熱帶地區(qū)的玉米和大米產(chǎn)量下降20%至40%。
此外，高溫還會(huì)減少土壤中的水分，造成糧食產(chǎn)量進(jìn)一步下降。
目前全球有一半、約30億的人口居住在熱帶和亞熱帶地區(qū)，到本世紀(jì)末這些地區(qū)的人口還將增加一倍。
印度北部、中國(guó)南部、澳大利亞大部、非洲全境，美國(guó)南部、阿根廷北部以及巴西南部將受到影響。
（英語(yǔ)點(diǎn)津姍姍編輯）
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