難民潮或終結(jié)“默克爾時代”

自2005年至今，默克爾已經(jīng)執(zhí)政10年，德國一直處于繁榮的"默克爾時代"。但今年，大量涌入難民帶來的各種問題，或為這個時代畫上句號。

At the beginning of this year, Angela Merkelhad a good claim to be the most successful politician in the world. The German chancellor had won three successive election victories. She was the dominant political figure in Europe and hugely popular at home. But the refugee crisis that has broken over Germany is likely to spell the end of the Merkel era.
今年初，安格拉·默克爾有很好的理由號稱世界上最成功的政界人士。這位德國總理已連續(xù)三次勝選。她是歐洲最具影響力的政治人物，在國內(nèi)也廣受歡迎。然而，沖向德國的難民危機很可能預(yù)示著"默克爾時代"的終結(jié)。

But the refugee crisis that has broken over Germany is likely to spell the end of the Merkel era. With the country in line to receive more than a million asylum-seekers this year alone, public anxiety is mounting — and so is criticism of Ms Merkel, from within her own party. Some of her close political allies acknowledge that it is now distinctly possible that the chancellor will have to leave office, before the next general election in 2017. Even if she sees out a full term, the notion of a fourth Merkel administration, widely discussed a few months ago, now seems improbable.
由于僅今年就要接收超過100萬尋求庇護者，德國公眾的焦慮情緒正在上升，黨內(nèi)對默克爾的批評也越來越多。幾位與她關(guān)系密切的政治盟友承認，現(xiàn)在看來很有可能的是默克爾不得不在2017年下屆大選前下臺。即使她做完這一任期，幾個月前還被廣泛討論的第四屆默克爾政府如今看來已不太可能。

In some ways, all this is deeply unfair. Ms Merkel did not cause the Syrian civil war, or the troubles of Eritrea or Afghanistan. Her response to the plight of the millions of refugees displaced by conflict has been bold and compassionate. The trouble is that Ms Merkel's government has clearly lost control of the situation. German officials publicly endorse the chancellor's declaration that "We can do this". But there is panic just beneath the surface: costs are mounting, social services are creaking, Ms Merkel's poll ratings are falling and far-right violence is on the rise.
從某些方面看，這一切對默克爾非常不公。敘利亞內(nèi)戰(zhàn)、厄立特里亞或阿富汗的困境并非默克爾造成。她對數(shù)百萬因沖突而流離失所的難民的回應(yīng)是大膽而富有同情心的。問題是默克爾政府顯然已經(jīng)失去了對局勢的控制。雖然德國官員公開支持總理的聲明——"我們可以做到"，但表面之下隱藏著恐慌：開支越來越大，社會服務(wù)體系不堪重負，默克爾的民意支持率正在下滑，而極右暴力事件正在增多。

Could Ms Merkel still turn the situation around? If the German government gets lucky, the coming of winter will slow the flow of refugees, providing a breathing space to organise the reception of asylum seekers and to come up with new arrangements with transit countries, particularly Turkey. Regardless of the chancellor's personal fate and reputation, the refugee crisis marks a turning point.
默克爾還能扭轉(zhuǎn)局勢嗎？如果德國政府幸運的話，冬天的到來將減緩難民流入，可以為安排收容尋求庇護者，并與難民過境國家（尤其是土耳其）一起制定新的安排提供喘息空間。姑且不論默克爾的個人命運和聲譽，這場難民危機標志著一個轉(zhuǎn)折點。

（中國日報網(wǎng)英語點津 丁一）