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Carl-Henric Svanberg found he could not avoid answering a question that he has encountered frequently in the past few years. The head of Swedish mobile network equipment giant Ericsson, was asked at a technology summit in Tokyo on November 15 by a CitiBank Analyst to give a forecast about when China will license the 3G (third generation) mobile telecom services.

The answer offered by Svanberg, chief executive officer of Ericsson, was simple and straightforward: "Next year, maybe."

The host of the summit quickly added with a chuckle, "the same answer every year." The audience then burst into laughter.

The laughter underlines a self-mockery of many audience members, including industry executives, analysts and journalists, including those from China, who have been zealously guessing the timing of 3G licensing in China.

Each year such guessing is proved wrong, as the Chinese Government continues to keep 3G licensing on hold.

But the industry is still hopelessly addicted to the guessing game as China's 3G market could unleash orders worth tens of billions of US dollars.

A recent report by UBS Securities predicted the 3G licensing could be further delayed, according to media reports in November.

Earlier, Chinese regulators have promised the country will provide 3G services during the 2008 Beijing Olympics. As 3G network deployment usually takes around 18 months, the industry has been widely anticipating that the government could award operators with the licences within months, probably in the first quarter of next year.

UBS in May predicted that 3G licensing could happen in the first half of next year. "The further delays" indicated in the updated UBS report suggests the guessing game will continue next year.

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