Ripple effects of brazen attack on Iran already felt

Last weekend, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated aerial assault on Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, striking key leadership targets in Tehran and eliminating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several top military officials.

This brazen decapitation strike, executed without United Nations authorization or broad international consultation, has ignited a rapidly escalating conflict. Iranian retaliatory missiles have rained down on Israeli cities, US military bases in the Gulf, and even civilian infrastructure in allied states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy flows, has been declared closed by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, halting tanker traffic and triggering immediate chaos in world markets.

What began under the pretext of neutralizing Iran's missile and nuclear threats has exposed the US and Israel as actors willing to upend international norms, embodying the very "rogue" behavior they decry in others.

The idea of "rogue states", popularized by post-Cold War US administrations, serves as a rhetorical tool for hegemonic powers to justify intervention against nations that defy their dominance. Yet the true roguery lies not in those labeled as outliers, but in the superpowers themselves — those who wield sovereignty while flouting the democratic ideals they claim to uphold. The "rogue state" respects neither its obligations as a state before the law of the world community nor the requirements of international law.

Viewed through this lens, the US-Israel alliance emerges as the ultimate rogue: launching preemptive strikes that kill a sovereign leader, bypassing global institutions and risking regional conflagration for strategic gains. This is no mere hypocrisy; it's often a sign of the times, where might masquerades as right, eroding important features of the post-World War II order.

The downstream implications are already rippling through global energy markets, underscoring the US' irresponsibility in prioritizing unilateral aggression over collective stability. In the short term, the conflict has sent shock waves through commodity prices. These immediate jolts reflect the fragility of global oil and gas supply chains, where closure of a single choke point can inflate costs for consumers worldwide.

The US administration, by escalating without a clear endgame — it projected that the campaign could last four to five weeks or longer — has demonstrated a cavalier disregard for these vulnerabilities. The strikes, ostensibly aimed at Iran's nuclear and missile infrastructure, have amplified economic disruptions in many parts of the world, with shipping reroutes and insurance premiums poised to drive up costs for everything from fuel to freight.

Looking at the medium term, the risks compound if Iran targets regional oil and gas facilities. Already, Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, one of the world's largest, has been hit by missiles, prompting shutdowns in Qatar's liquefied natural gas plants, although Iranian officials have denied striking the refinery.

A prolonged blockade or sustained attacks could push oil prices beyond $100 per barrel, according to analysts, potentially triggering a global recession as major importers grapple with supply gaps and reshape global gas and oil flows.

Iran's capacity to disrupt Gulf infrastructure highlights the US' overextension. By diverting resources to bolster Israel's air defenses amid simultaneous strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Washington appears to have left its Gulf partners exposed.

Saudi observers, echoing regional anxieties, whisper of US "abandonment", as US interceptors prioritize Tel Aviv over Riyadh or Doha. This perceived favoritism sows distrust among allies who host US troops and military bases. The inability to shield installations across the Middle East paints a picture of strategic hubris masking operational limits.

Compounding this is the possibility that after years of proxy conflicts in Ukraine and ongoing commitments in Iraq, US stockpiles — particularly of precision-guided missiles and interceptors — are critically low. Experts warn that sustained operations in Iran could exhaust reserves in weeks, with no quick resupply amid industrial bottlenecks.

The initial strikes have not quelled Iranian retaliation. Instead, they've drawn in Hezbollah and scattered Gulf targets, possibly stretching US forces thin.

The rogue's wheel turns: The self-appointed guardians of order become its disruptors. The US-Israeli actions in Iran exemplify this, unleashing energy turmoil and reputational damage that reverberate far beyond the Middle East.

Short-term price spikes may subside, but longer-term scars — from ruined infrastructure to alliance fractures — will linger, evidencing the perils of capricious power. As the conflict unfolds, nations worldwide must confront the imperative for greater energy sovereignty and diversified security ties, lest they remain hostage to rogue impulses in Washington and Tel Aviv.

This is not just a regional crisis. It's a harbinger of a more volatile era, in which the US risks unraveling the fragile threads of global interdependence.

The author is an adjunct professor at Queensland University of Technology in Australia and former policy adviser to former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.