Consistency in governance of climate hailed

As China's annual two sessions get underway, climate governance is widely expected to be embedded more deeply into economic planning as the country enters the first year of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30).

Officials have signaled a gradual shift from energy-intensity targets toward a "dual control" system that combines total carbon emissions and intensity indicators.

Analysts also expected continued reform of the power system, expansion of the national carbon market beyond the electricity sector, and stronger integration of climate adaptation into urban planning.

Joshua Busby, a professor of public affairs at the University of Texas, who previously served as a senior advisor for climate at the US Department of Defense, said China's policy continuity provides an important contrast with the United States. "China has a more consistent policy environment for climate policy than the United States, which has seen partisan oscillation in climate policy across several administrations," Busby told China Daily.

In Washington, he said, Democratic administrations have adopted climate policies, while Republican administrations have "walked away from those commitments". "The current (US) administration is the most extreme version of that policy orientation and is seeking to permanently undermine the legal, scientific and institutional foundations of US climate action," he said.

He added that this "will damage the country's ability both to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate impacts". He said commitments in states such as California offer "some hope for subnational variation", but described the overall federal trajectory as unstable.

China formally submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) at the end of 2025, committing to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10 percent from peak levels by 2035.

The pledge comes as policymakers seek to align industrial upgrading, energy security and decarbonization under the new planning cycle.

When it comes to coal, Busby said that there is "hope that China can transition coal as a source of flexible back-up power that runs only when needed and that renewables and storage become the leading sources of electricity generation". "The pursuit of grid modernization may help in this regard," he said.

Beyond domestic reform, Busby said China's international engagement carries growing weight.

China has continued to participate in multilateral climate negotiations in recent years, even as US federal engagement has fluctuated. "China gets reputational benefits by just showing up to negotiations while the US is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and even the Framework Convention," he said.

China is currently the world's largest producer of renewable energy equipment and electric vehicles. Busby described this as "an important development".

"China's increased exports of clean technologies are also facilitating faster deployment of renewables, batteries and electric vehicles around the world," he said.

China accounts for a significant share of global manufacturing capacity in solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, placing it at the center of global supply chains for low-carbon technologies. "If China can exceed its own NDCs and continue to export clean technologies and set up manufacturing hubs for clean tech around the world, that would provide more grounds for optimism," he said.

Busby said geopolitical tensions have complicated cooperation, noting that "US-China geopolitical competition has undermined the ability for the two countries to meaningfully work together on climate change". However, he said that economic engagement in sectors such as electric vehicles "might be one potential off-ramp for some of the tensions", though it "would require some significant diplomatic work by both sides".