Confrontation still shadows potential talks

Recent military threats against Iran by the United States are making an already volatile situation more uncertain. While Iran faces challenges at home, intervention from abroad risks further escalation and pushes the region toward a far more dangerous confrontation, experts said.

US President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi are planning to meet in Istanbul on Friday to discuss a possible nuclear deal and other issues, according to news website Axios, quoting anonymous sources including a US official.

Iranian media later challenged the report. Tasnim News Agency, citing Iranian officials, said details have not been finalized and described the talks as still in the preliminary stage, with the overall framework and structure yet to take shape.

Trump on Sunday hinted at a possible attack if Iran does not reach a deal over its nuclear program. Araghchi told CNN the same day that a "just, fair, and equitable" agreement remains possible if the US abandons coercive policies.

Tensions remain high amid increased US military activity in the region. The Pentagon deployed an aircraft carrier strike group and multiple warships to the Middle East in late January, with Washington continuing to send warnings to Tehran.

Also on Monday, Israel announced it conducted a joint naval exercise in the Red Sea alongside the US a day earlier.

Sun Degang, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that the US is now fully prepared for potential military action against Iran, significantly heightening the risk of armed conflict.

"If the US were to initiate military action against Iran, it might first carry out precision strikes on a limited number of high-value targets," he said.

Sun elaborated that the US could then degrade Iran's missile and drone production facilities and storage sites, followed by efforts to neutralize missile launchers, thus weakening its arsenal of more than 2,000 ballistic missiles.

In addition, Iran's air defense systems could be taken out to secure Washington's air superiority. Alternatively, the US might opt for a coordinated, simultaneous strike on these four categories of targets to maximize shock and deterrence, he said.

Sun added that as a major military power in the Middle East, Iran retains multiple options to respond to the US.

"First, Iran could target US naval assets, including aircraft carriers and other vessels in the Gulf and nearby waters. Second, it might launch strikes against US military bases across the Gulf region. Third, Tehran could seek to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially interfering with the transit of oil tankers and global energy supply chains," he said.

The current US administration appears to embrace a "might is right" approach, Sun said. From last year's 12-day Iran-Israel conflict to its ongoing pressure campaign against Tehran, Washington has sought to project strength and deter forces in the Middle East it views as hostile, he said.

"By escalating military threats against Iran, the US is also signaling its strategic dominance and showcasing its advanced weapons systems, which may not only serve geopolitical objectives but also help bolster its arms exports," Sun said.

Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, said that the US has pursued a strategy of "maximum pressure" and brinkmanship toward Iran, seeking to compel Tehran to accept its terms through escalating deterrence. The underlying objective is to leverage sustained pressure as a means of forcing Iran back to the negotiating table.

"Human rights concerns are in fact used as a pretext for US hegemony. The real objective of the US is regime change in Iran, rather than any genuine concern for the country's human rights. The worsening living conditions in Iran are largely a result of longstanding US sanctions, for which Washington bears primary responsibility," Ding said.

Disrupting oil supply

If Iran were to control the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a military conflict, global crude oil supplies could be severely disrupted, energy markets destabilized, and the fragile momentum of the global economic recovery significantly weakened, he added.

Sun said that the current US administration's hegemonic approach will inflict serious damage to regional security and undermine the stability of the international system as a whole.

US threats of military action against Iran risk undermining regional integration and multilateral dialogue mechanisms, thereby obstructing the Middle East's pursuit of lasting peace and stability. Should Washington proceed with military action, it could trigger a broader regional crisis, endangering the security of US military bases and personnel while exposing its allies to significant spillover consequences, he said.

Moreover, US military strikes against sovereign states would represent a serious breach of the post-World War II global governance framework centered on the United Nations, he added.

Such actions risk eroding the authority of international law and multilateral institutions, pushing the international system toward a more power-driven order in which might prevails over rules and the security of sovereign nations becomes increasingly precarious, Sun said.

Xinhua contributed to this story.

liujianqiao@chinadaily.com.cn