Why Trump wants Greenland: Bases, minerals, sea lanes

Located in the Arctic Ocean, Greenland — the world's largest island — is dominated by vast tundra and encircled by glaciers. Long overlooked because of its extreme cold and harsh environment, the autonomous Danish territory has in recent years emerged as a geopolitical hot spot, fueled by United States President Donald Trump's renewed threats to annex it.

Experts say three main factors underpin Trump's interest in Greenland: its strategic military location, its mineral potential and the opening of Arctic shipping routes.

Sun Chenghao, head of the US-European Union program at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy, said Greenland's position at the junction of the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean makes it a critical hub for US early-warning systems, air and missile defense, and space surveillance in the Arctic theater.

The US already maintains a permanent military presence at the Pituffik Space Base on Greenland's northwestern coast, a facility that played a key role during the Cold War in monitoring Soviet activities.

"However, the likelihood of a transfer of sovereignty through purchase or annexation is low because of constraints imposed by Denmark's constitution, the EU framework and international law," Sun said.

"A more realistic pathway would be for the US to exert pressure and engage in negotiations — without altering Greenland's sovereign status — to secure expanded troop deployments, base upgrades, enhanced Arctic surveillance and broader cooperation on resource development," he said.

From a resource and supply-chain perspective, Greenland is rich in critical minerals such as rare earths, giving it medium — to long-term strategic value for the US as Washington seeks to build a secure critical-mineral supply system.

A joint geological survey conducted by Denmark and Greenland in 2023 found that the island's ice-free areas contain substantial deposits of critical raw materials, including rare-earth metals, graphite and platinum-group metals.

Jonathan Paul, an associate professor of earth science at the University of London, wrote in a recent article on The Conversation website that climate change has major implications for the accessibility of many of Greenland's natural resources, which are currently buried beneath kilometers of ice.

Although mining activities are tightly regulated by Greenland's government, Paul said pressure to loosen controls and grant new exploration and extraction licenses could increase amid growing US interest in the island's future.

Global warming is also opening up new Arctic shipping routes. Greenland lies close to several emerging passages, including the Northwest Passage along Canada's northern coast, the Northeast Passage — also known as the Northern Sea Route — along Russia's Arctic coast, and the future Transpolar Sea Route, which would cross the central Arctic Ocean.

This positioning gives Greenland a vantage point for commercial shipping and monitoring military movements. Experts say control over the island would give Washington greater leverage over Arctic access, early-warning capabilities and the security of trans-Arctic sea lanes.