Exports surge as East Africa defies US tariffs

Despite the broad tariffs introduced by the United States in April, countries in East Africa have recorded a surprising rise in exports to the US market, according to new data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).

The Democratic Republic of Congo led the surge, with exports to the US rising by more than $1 billion between April and July compared to the same period in 2024. Ethiopia and Kenya also posted significant gains, recording 95 percent and 22 percent increases respectively.

Analysts attribute the jump largely to trade-diversion effects and strong US demand for East African commodities.

While the region has faced US tariffs, the rates - 10 percent for Ethiopia and Kenya, for example - were far lower than those imposed on some other exporters, including China.

The UN data also indicated that regional trade is gaining momentum. In 2024, total trade within the East African Community surpassed $11 billion for the first time, marking a 22 percent increase from 2023.

Intra-African trade grew by 8.5 percent, far outpacing the 0.4 percent growth in exports to markets outside the continent.

Agricultural produce alongside manufactured goods such as textiles, chemicals, cement and pharmaceuticals, are driving this growth, underscoring the potential of regional value chains and the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Gold prices surged by over 60 percent between January 2024 and July this year, while coffee prices nearly doubled over the same period.

Tanzania and Uganda, both major gold producers, capitalized on this trend, with Uganda also benefiting from strong exports of coffee, tea, fish and flowers. Kenya's tea exports hit a record $1.7 billion in 2024, up from $1.4 billion the previous year.

Mineral exports now dominate East Africa's trade landscape, accounting for 53 percent of all exports, while the share of manufacturing has steadily declined, slipping to just 17.5 percent in 2024.

With the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) still uncertain, the UNECA has urged countries in East Africa to prepare for a post-AGOA era by diversifying export markets and strengthening intra-African trade.

The region's recent performance offers a blueprint for resilience, but long-term competitiveness will hinge on reducing reliance on commodities, revitalizing manufacturing and deepening regional integration.