OECD: America emerges as biggest loser in Trump's trade war

A starkly downgraded forecast from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warns that US tariff policies are inflicting greater-than-expected damage, with the adverse effects being felt most acutely within the United States, according to an article on the Yahoo Finance on June 3.

The report slashes the OECD's 2025 US GDP growth projection to just 1.6 percent, down sharply from its earlier forecast of 2.2 percent. This substantial revision cutting projected growth by over a quarter — highlights a dramatic deterioration in economic expectations.

The warning is reinforced by new data: Bloomberg analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis figures reveals a record collapse in US net exports during Q1 2025, marking the steepest quarterly drop ever recorded. The ISM manufacturing imports index just plummeted to 39.9, its lowest level since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis. The S&P 500 is lagging global equities by more than 12 percentage points year-to-date — its worst relative performance since 1993.

Unsurprisingly, the strain is also impacting US business confidence. According to Conference Board data released last week, 83 percent of US CEOs now expect a recession in the next 12 to 18 months,

Overall, the report paints a stark picture of how US-launched trade wars are rippling through the global economy, only to boomerang back with concentrated force onto the US itself.