US tariffs put ASEAN at strategic crossroads

The United States' reimposition of sweeping tariffs, particularly targeting China, is not merely an economic maneuver. It represents a deeper unraveling of the multilateral system that once underpinned global trade. The announcement of new tariffs on nearly all US trading partners, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations like Malaysia, is emblematic of the administration's retreat from global cooperation and its embrace of economic nationalism that prioritizes US interests at the cost of others, signaling a major turning point for the global economy and the international order.

ASEAN members could face additional tariffs ranging from 10 to 49 percent on exports to the US once the 90-day period of tariff abeyance is over. The supposed era of free, open and predictable trade is crumbling under the weight of protectionism and unilateralism.

The growing protectionist tendencies of the White House stand as a stark reminder that the liberal global order, which once promised peace and prosperity, has largely been an illusion for the Global South.

The 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 vaccine apartheid and now US' mercantilist policies have exposed the fragility of a system that served the US-led West first and foremost.

As Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim rightly pointed out, the new tariffs are not just an economic threat — they are an existential challenge to the principles of free, nondiscriminatory trade that were once enshrined in the World Trade Organization, an institution the US helped found.

This moment demands more than just policy adjustments; it calls for a radical reassessment of ASEAN's position in the global economic order. As the West — particularly the US — reverses its commitment to multilateralism, ASEAN must confront the emerging challenge: to either align with the receding influence of the West or to embrace a new future centered on collaboration, strategic autonomy and regional integration.

For ASEAN nations, this is not merely a question of economic survival but of strategic autonomy. The meeting of ASEAN economic ministers, convened by Anwar on Thursday in Malaysia, is not only a necessary step toward a united regional response, but is also indicative of the increasing pressure on ASEAN to formulate a coherent strategy in the face of an unpredictable and increasingly antagonistic White House.

The US approach, which treats global trade as a zero-sum game, puts ASEAN countries like Malaysia in a difficult position.

The US demands that countries "decouple" from China or risk being caught in the crossfire of a trade war — a policy that forces ASEAN nations to choose sides in a conflict between the world's two largest economies. Malaysia's efforts to maintain its neutrality and autonomy — while also being a key player in ASEAN's response — highlight the region's struggle to navigate these turbulent waters.

China's response to ASEAN, in contrast to the US, has been one of stability and mutual development. Through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, China has offered the region consistent investments in infrastructure, green technologies and digital innovation. Rather than imposing punitive tariffs or forcing countries to choose sides, China's approach has respected ASEAN's autonomy, offering mutually beneficial partnerships without the coercion that characterizes US economic nationalism.

The narrative that ASEAN nations might benefit from relocating supply chains out of China is shortsighted. While countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia may see short-term gains from manufacturing diversions, this shift does not address the deeper issue: ASEAN's reliance on external powers for technological development and economic stability. Without serious investments in its own technological base and a concerted effort to assert regional sovereignty, ASEAN risks becoming a passive player in global economic dynamics — simply a production hub for global supply chains rather than an autonomous economic force.

This is why ASEAN must accelerate its regional integration efforts. It must deepen its strategic orientation toward partners who are committed to a multipolar world order based on mutual respect and shared prosperity. By enhancing trade mechanisms based on the Chinese yuan and further developing sectors such as digital innovation and green technologies, ASEAN can build the foundation for long-term sustainability and economic resilience. At the same time, ASEAN must cultivate intellectual independence by establishing regional think tanks, foresight centers, and legal frameworks that can protect the region from economic coercion, regardless of its source.

The challenges posed by the White House are a warning for the entire region. As ASEAN grapples with the fallout from the US tariffs, it must recognize that the era of unquestioned Western leadership is over. The liberal world order, as conceived post-1945, was always a Western construct designed to perpetuate Western dominance. As this order unravels, ASEAN must decide: Will it continue to cling to the fading influence of the West, or will it seize the opportunity to build a future based on self-determination, cooperation, and balanced partnerships with emerging powers like China and the broader Global South?

As Anwar has emphasized, Malaysia and ASEAN are committed to responding to these challenges with calm and resolve, not through confrontation but through constructive collaboration. The tariffs may be a signal of greater challenges to come, but they also present an opportunity for ASEAN to rethink its role in a world no longer dominated by a single superpower.

In this new global chapter, the future belongs to regions, civilizational coalitions, and emerging economies that can write the rules of engagement, not as subordinates but as equals. ASEAN must now decide if it will continue to be an observer in this reshaping of global dynamics, or if it will actively participate in defining the new world order. The future is not a relic of the past; it is a future ASEAN must boldly step into, not as a passive player, but as a central force in shaping the geopolitical landscape.

The author is a PhD in Political Science from the Department of Fundamental and Inter-Disciplinary Studies at the International Islamic University Malaysia.