Sweet home needs more support policies

By the end of 2024, the Chinese mainland's population was 1.408 billion, a decrease of 1.39 million compared with the end of the previous year. This marks the third consecutive year of population decline since 2022. In 2024, the total number of births was 9.54 million, an increase of 520,000 compared with 2023, marking the first rise since the continuous decline since 2017.

China is grappling with a serious demographic challenge as young people are more focused on earning a living and less interested in marriage. Because economic pressure mounts and the cost of raising children rises, many couples view having children as a luxury rather than a necessity.

Available statistics paint a sobering picture. In 2020, the marriage rate in the country fell to 5.8 per 1,000 people, with only 12.29 million people registering their first marriage. The same year the total fertility rate dropped to 1.3, much below the replacement level of 2.1. By 2024, the total fertility rate had dropped to an alarming 1.0, with Shanghai registering a rate as low as 0.6. These figures highlight a stark reality: young people in China are increasingly reluctant to embrace family life.

Moreover, the young face huge employment pressure. In 2024, 11.79 million university graduates entered an already saturated labor market. The mismatch between the demand for and creation of jobs is stark. Stories such as that of students from top universities working as delivery personnel or struggling to find stable employment have become common. This economic insecurity is fueling delayed or abandonment of parenthood.

Raising a child requires substantial financial resources — something many young people feel they can't afford given the unstable job market. But economic pressure is only part of the story. Attitudes toward relationships and family have undergone significant changes. And late marriage, live-in and remaining single have become increasingly common. Many young people prioritize personal (career) growth and freedom over traditional life milestones like marriage and having children.

Marriage has also become increasingly materialistic. Rising dowries and the desire to own property have commercialized relationships, eroding trust between couples. As a result, many young people view marriage as an optional, rather than essential, life choice. This sentiment is compounded by a broader cultural shift toward individualism, where self-fulfillment often takes precedence over family obligations.

Similarly, parenthood is no longer a universal aspiration. Many young people prefer to have just one child or no children at all, with single-individual households and single-child families becoming more common, signaling a fundamental shift in how the younger generation perceives family life.

Addressing China's fertility rate crisis requires more than financial incentives. While policies such as subsidies and tax breaks can alleviate some of the economic pressure young people face, such policies are not enough to address the deeper cultural and structural issues at play. For instance, countries such as Japan and the Republic of Korea have been struggling to reverse the trend of low birthrate despite aggressive policy measures, reflecting the limitations of government action.

Therefore, we need to create a society that genuinely supports marriage and childbearing. For that, we have to redevelop the culture that values not only marriage and parenthood but also career-building. Encouraging young people to embrace family life while building their career and achieving their other personal goals is essential.

The impact of China's low fertility rate extends far beyond individual families. A shrinking population could undermine the ability to support a rapidly aging population. While long-term labor shortages could hinder innovation, an overburdened pension system may struggle to meet the needs of a growing elderly population.

However, China's falling fertility rate reflects a broader global trend. In a world in which economic uncertainties, urbanization and shifting social norms reshape family structures, many countries have been grappling with similar challenges.

Yet China's falling fertility rate problem is not insurmountable. It can be addressed, somewhat, through swift and comprehensive action. Policymakers must go beyond offering economic incentives to young people in order to ensure more and more young people formally enter conjugal life and embrace parenthood.

This is not just about reversing demographic trends; it's also about fostering a society where young people feel secure, valued and empowered to build their lives the way they want. By balancing personal aspirations with collective needs, China can address its demographic challenges and create a brighter future for generations to come.

The author is a professor of demography at the Institute of Population Research, Peking University.

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

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