Development of China-US ties tempered by hope, pragmatism

Tough moments expected

Looking forward to 2025, Firestein said he expected to see some "tough moments" in the relationship.

"My cautious hope is that things don't get appreciably worse, and I think we can achieve that with wise leadership on both sides," he said.

Firestein's sentiment was echoed at a seminar in Washington, DC, held by the Institute for China-US Studies on Dec 17, at which one of the keynote speakers cautioned all onboard the China-US relations journey to "buckle your seat belt" — hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.

In his talks, Steve Orlins, president of the National Committee on United States-China Relations, listed "real positive" things that happened this year such as reopened channels of communications, the lowering of the travel advisory from three to two, and increasing cooperation on fentanyl.

"When you have channels of communication, you can still find places to cooperate. And that was kind of the positive, and that's a view that maybe we'll talk about, that maybe president-elect Trump… and his team will seek to follow that path," he said.

Orlins said what is clear from Trump's first term is that tariffs did not bring jobs back to the US. They diverted manufacturing to other countries, but the companies didn't come back here, he said.

He also said there was "a securitization of everything" and, a simple definition of national security was needed "that will allow for manufacturing to come to the United States. It will allow us to export more to China than we do."

Orlins also proposed making clear what is white-listed, gray-listed, and black-listed, and having clear end-use certifications.

"There's so many interesting things that president-elect Trump's team can do that… the 'small yard and the high fence' didn't allow the US and China to do during the Biden administration," Orlins said.