Development of China-US ties tempered by hope, pragmatism
Cautious approach as Trump readies to take office for second term
"There is substantial competition across economic, security and diplomatic domains. That said, there are still some areas of cooperation. The commercial and scholarly relationships are still broad and deep, and the two sides have avoided outright military conflict and decoupling. Nevertheless, the status quo is not static, and relations are on a gradual downward trajectory," Kennedy told China Daily.
A senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at CSIS, Kennedy said the Trump administration's China policy is hard to predict.
"Does the Trump administration seek a grand bargain with China to stabilize ties further, or does it see China as a rival who it needs to contain and weaken? You see potential signs of both," he said.
Douglas H. Paal, distinguished fellow in the Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, cautioned that stability is not on solid ground, largely due to the entrenched mistrust between the two countries.
"Both sides have addressed thorny issues, with leadership endorsement, through working groups that bring what I agree is 'stabilization' compared to the recent past, but not an enduring stability," he said in an email interview.
"The key risks are in misreading the other's intentions and capabilities," he added.
Paal listed progress that occurred on precursors for illicit fentanyl drugs, prosecution of illegal traffickers, release of detainees and prisoners, restored military communications, the conditional renewal of the Science and Technology agreement, as well as modest cooperation on relief of less-developed nations' debt, and travel and visas.
