Sino-US relations need new chapter

China-US relations are likely to enter a new stage of uncertainty when Donald Trump assumes office as US President on Jan 20. While Trump has assembled a Cabinet to better execute his grand vision of "make America great again", if his first term (2017-2020) is any indicator, the second is not going to be easy for Sino-US relations in the coming years.

From 2018 to 2020, Trump launched a trade war against China, seriously undermining the economic and trade ties and hurting both countries. During this term, China-US interaction shrank drastically, with inter-government dialogue decreasing sharply.

However, Trump may have drawn some lessons from his turbulent first term. In order to promote his "Make America Great Again" mission through "Buy American and Hire American", he should think about the cost-effectiveness of doing business with China. In his second presidency, the US could either trigger trade war 2.0 by levying more tariffs on China and forcing Beijing to slap counter-tariffs, or encourage China to significantly increase imports from the United States by lifting the 25 percent tariffs that his administration imposed in 2018-2020.

When Trump won his first election in 2016, the Republican Party had won both the House and the Senate. However, two years later, his party lost the House in mid-term elections. Certainly, Trump's inability to secure China's cooperation in trade partnership played a role in that defeat. The US has given Trump another opportunity by choosing the Republican Party to lead the White House and both chambers of the Congress. However, if there were another trade war against China without delivering on the promise of "Buy American and Hire American", Trump's party may repeat what happened in 2018.

On the contrary, talking to China about fully implementing "The Phase One China-US Economic and Trade Agreement", signed on Jan 15, 2020, in Washington, with the aim of pausing the trade war, could help the US increase its total exports by 3 percent, significantly boosting Trump's MAGA credibility. He doesn't need to wage another trade war on China at all. He just needs to order his new trade team to reinitiate trade talks with the Chinese team. It is that easy.

Lately, Trump has threatened to impose a 10 percent tariff on all goods from China if the China-US dispute on fentanyl is not settled by January. Beijing has long committed to both the Trump and Joe Biden administrations to take this issue seriously, by executing any smugglers of such precursors of poison. While China is unhappy to be under a tariff threat from the US, China has been showing its commitment by deepening action. The two countries could set up joint working groups by investigating relevant cases together and expediting legal proceedings.

Trump has indicated that members of his team contacted their Chinese counterparts in the past few days. There is reason to believe that such a longtime thorny issue cannot be resolved to both sides' satisfaction.

Cooperation is a two-way street. While China has reason to respond to the US' legitimate concerns with compassion and swiftness, it would be ideal for Washington to take care of China's reasonable demands too.

China's first and foremost national security concern is its sovereignty over Taiwan. From Trump 1.0 to Biden, the US has systemically increased its political and military support to Taiwan. Not only did then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visit the island in 2022, the US even regularly talked about its plans to deploy troops on the island. This has seriously challenged the foundation for normalizing bilateral relations. While the US tries to justify its action by saying it will stabilize cross-Strait relations, it is the US' infringement of the one-China principle that is increasing tensions in the region.

China's other concern is the US' disruption of the global supply chain. The Trump 1.0 administration started "decoupling" with China, while the Biden administration expanded the width and depth of "de-risking" with China by adopting a "small yard, high fence" approach.

However, China-US trade relations may not necessarily be gloomy during Trump's second term. Beijing and Washington can reasonably settle their fentanyl dispute and implement their Phase One China-US Economic and Trade Agreement collaboratively to avoid a new trade war.

The author is professor emeritus and former executive dean at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University.

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

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