Postelection future of US-China ties in focus

Postelection US-China relations were explored at a gathering in New York where a broad range of topics were discussed.

More than 200 guests, including ambassadors, scholars and investors met at the China Institute 2024 Executive Summit event on Tuesday, themed "Now What?" — A Post Election Outlook.

They addressed topics covering diplomacy, economics, artificial intelligence, business and finance, and social and cultural trends.

They also weighed in on the future of bilateral ties amid geopolitical tensions and discussed potential collaborations in the financial sector between Chinese and US investors in response to Donald Trump winning a second term as US president on Nov 5.

Despite the differences between the two nations, among the comments from the experts was that "decoupling is unrealistic", and there is still room to "negotiate and reconcile", particularly in business and investment.

President-elect Trump has proposed imposing a 60 percent tariff on all goods imported from China, an increase from the levies put in place during his first term, starting in 2018. The tariffs initiated a trade war between the two nations.

As experts debate whether tariffs will serve as a tool or a goal for the incoming administration, many are advocating for increased negotiation and cooperation to address trade issues.

Tariffs would hurt US consumers, as they could add to already elevated inflation, David Firestein, CEO and president of the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, said at the event.

"Tariffs do nothing to solve any of the problems in the action based in the trade relationship," said Firestein, noting that the duties imposed during Trump's first term negatively impacted consumers in both the US and China, while also contributing to a misconception that the current inflation issues stem from the trade war.

"If the tariffs are so effective as a tool in solving the trade problems, we wouldn't still need the tariffs six and a half years after they were first implemented," he said.

The actual implementation of the tariffs remains uncertain until Trump's inauguration on Jan 20.

'Functional' relations

"My hope for the incoming administration would be that we stabilize the relationship and at the very minimum … generate a relationship that is functional," he said.

"It is simple logic that if both sides stop buying things from each other, no one will emerge as a winner," said Chen Li, the new Chinese consul general in New York.

Chen said that "China and the US are partners, not rivals", and that both nations' economic and trade ties are mutually beneficial, not "zero-sum", while China's economy is "an ocean, not a pond" and encourages more cooperation on business between China and the US.

"It is hoped that we can learn from last week's New York Marathon, in which participants encourage each other toward bettering themselves and making progress together while celebrating the achievement of respective goals," he said.

The increasing threats of tariffs reflect a broader trend toward "decoupling and de-risking", some participants at the event noted.

"The trade war impacted both China and the US, but it also encouraged China to strengthen its global strategy. In the long run, this may have positive effects," said Ni Pin, the president of Wanxiang America, the US office of Wanxiang Group Companies China.

He said that the 60 percent tariff might boost US revenue, but it also pushes up inflation, which affects everyday people. So, whether tariffs should be "a tool or a goal" is still up for debate, Ni said.

"That said, strengthening communication and minimizing misunderstandings should really be a priority for both countries," he added.

Henry Fernandez, chairman and CEO of MSCI, said in his speech that decoupling is "never going to happen", as trade between China and the US in past decades has not only benefited global stability but has also provided more jobs.

Robert Hormats, the former US undersecretary of state, said it's time for renewed mutual respect between the two countries and called for increasing people-to-people and cultural exchanges.

"We're all better off and better countries if we're together. We're all worse off if we don't, and that should be something we look at in terms of these smaller issues as well as larger issues," he said.