Pivotal moment

Two crises at Europe's doors that risk detonating an Armageddon in the worst-case scenario or a regional domino confrontation are engulfing the world's attention. Not much further South the Israel-Palestinian conflict is already encompassing the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf's margin, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's most recent tour producing neither a ceasefire nor visible results yet.

Paradoxically, NATO's bizarre description of Beijing as a "decisive enabler" in the Russia-Ukraine conflict needs clarification. The fact is that since February 2022, several Western countries and companies — despite the well-known sanctions — have continued trading with Russia, buying gas and keeping some economic interests in Moscow via intermediaries, if not directly. India, with its strong ties with the West has not been criticized for deploying its "multi-alignment" foreign policy, including buying gas (above 50 percent of India's needs) from Russia. As for weaponry, 34 percent of India's new arsenal acquisitions between 2019 and 2023 were purchased from Russia, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's latest report.

In July, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Moscow, meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin. The voices of "concern" and criticism that arose in Western capitals lessened within days and have totally disappeared now in late August as Modi has visited Kyiv.

Equally undisturbed by Western nations are Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia and several other countries of the Global South, which have continued trading critical raw materials with Moscow and only received mild criticism. Furthermore, it is a well-known fact that due to the intrinsic nature of the global trade structure intermediate and high-tech goods normally carry components produced in a variety of countries of origin that are integrated in the final product.

In response to global and regional conflicts reshaping the geopolitical landscape, the European Union's policy toward China is undergoing significant discussions and it may have to accommodate new factors in early January, when a new US administration is sworn in.

But the winds of realism and pragmatism are blowing. More than two years after the start of the Ukraine crisis and a series of Kyiv-Beijing diplomatic exchanges, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guangzhou on July 24. Dmytro Kuleba is the highest-level Ukrainian official to have visited China during this period. His visit was recognition of Beijing as an important potential peace broker.

Last February, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi undisputably stated that "China did not create the Ukraine crisis", highlighting that "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, the purposes and principles of the UN Charter should be observed, the legitimate security concerns of all countries should be taken seriously".

Top positions at the helm of European institutions before the new US administration takes office in January offers a window of opportunity, even though a complex one.

Maybe Antonio Costa, the incoming president of the European Council, with his South Asia background, might contribute to a more nuanced and less Eurocentric worldview and actions. Costa was Portugal's prime minister when Lisbon and Beijing signed a memorandum of understanding on the Belt and Road Initiative in 2018. Now, among his functions, Costa will be leading the conclusion of international agreements on behalf of the EU.

To incoming European authorities, it seems advisable to suggest a change of the description of China in the world's most prominent crisis. It would be truthful and more helpful to recognize it as a potential enabler of peace, especially as it has already demonstrated its capability in that regard, having played a key role in mediating a restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It is also the only one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council that has not engaged in any military action beyond its borders in more than 30 years.

This pivotal moment necessitates a thorough examination of evolving EU policies and their impact on EU-China relations.

In the context of what are viewed as EU measures to protect certain industries such as electric vehicles and dairy industries over the past months and weeks, the EU and China continue to exhibit considerable prospects for development and for promoting peace and stability. It is clear that the EU's policy adjustments toward China are inevitable, but the form is far from clear. The EU has reached an impressive unity during the COVID-19 pandemic, but has been showing signs of some internal divergences over the past two years.

There is a variety of voices inside the EU on each EU-China ties issue. That is normal but atomization is a matter of concern. It is time for a holistic approach, or a unity of purpose aimed at reaching a more united, sovereign and strategic autonomous continent status. With new top EU officials entering office, it is an opportunity for the EU and China to restart talks on ways to rescue a kind of framework or spirit reminiscent of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment that was concluded in principle on Dec 30,2020. Let's remember, the agreement was saluted with fanfare as evidence of Europe's strategic autonomy providing the formula for an equilibrated level playing field so often advocated in recent years. Furthermore, it was argued that it was better to have a joint agreement with China and not 27 bilateral investment agreements. Unfortunately, three years ago, approval was derailed just three months later by issues unrelated to trade and investment.

Reading the reports by several authors titled "EU-China Relations at a Crossroads, Vol. III: Business Unusual", published by the European Policy Center in June 2024 with a preamble by EU Ambassador to Beijing Jorge Toledo, the impression is that although the path is complex, the door remains open and a continuous conversation on a wide range of issues is still possible.

Last January, Spain's three times ambassador to China Eugenio Bregolat, in an insightful article titled "Trio in a Triangle" published in China Today magazine, convincingly argued that Europe claims "strategic autonomy" and that one aspect of this concept is "moderating power" — already exercised over the decoupling favored by the United States to a large extent. It is time to take a step forward, for differences can be resolved at the negotiating table, perhaps with more direct language aimed at maximizing prospects and results for each side while avoiding sanctions and counter sanctions.

Next year, Madrid and Beijing will celebrate 20th anniversary of the Spain-China comprehensive strategic partnership. Spain, as one of Europe's oldest nation states, has much experience of conflicts, conflict-resolution, and the art of negotiation, as well as the limits of power, could make a distinctive contribution to EU-China ties, hand in hand with its European partners.

The author is director of the Dialogue with China Project and former global expert in the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.