Trump comeback as yet uncertain

On Jan 15, the Republican Party held a caucus in Iowa, marking the beginning of the Republican primary for the 2024 US presidential election. Donald Trump easily won with a 51 percent approval rate.

A poll conducted among over 1,500 voters planning to attend the caucus meeting revealed that about 90 percent of respondents believed that the operation of the federal government must undergo thorough or significant changes. At least within the Republican Party, Trump is viewed as the person capable of bringing about these changes.

Further, a Fox News poll found that if Florida governor Ron DeSantis won the Republican primary, 35 percent of Trump supporters would refuse to vote for him. However, if the winner was former US ambassador to UN Nikki Haley, the percentage would rise to 45.

Which indicates that Trump's supporters are more aligned with him personally than with the Republican Party — a reality enough to exert strong pressure on the Republican Party, compelling them to follow Trump's lead to avoid losing votes.

Moreover, there are quite a number of "middle voters" who don't necessarily support the Democratic Party but absolutely do not want Trump to be elected again. They might go to polling stations only to prevent Trump winning.

On Jan 23, the next Republican primary election will be held in New Hampshire, where Republican supporters are more moderate and secular, and the party registration rules are relatively open, which means that there may be more supporters of the Republican Party but they do not support Trump in the voting. It is also Haley's home state, which adds more uncertainties to the result.

Should Trump still win in such a situation, the remaining opponents DeSantis and Haley will face stronger pressure within the party to withdraw from the race.