There's cause for optimism, 45 years after China-US relations formalized

Forty-five years ago, at the end of January 1979, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping traveled to the United States and met with then president Jimmy Carter. The two countries formalized the normalization of their diplomatic relations.

The normalization concluded a long process that began with the secret visit to Beijing in 1971 by then US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, a trip that led to the historic 1972 visit to China by then president Richard Nixon.

Over that period, the two countries had negotiated and reconciled their differences through numerous communiques and ultimately achieved a principle of coexistence. This in turn forged what is the single most important diplomatic relationship in the world today.

Since that time, the world has changed significantly. The Cold War era during which the relationship was forged has passed on. The US' intention to open relations with China had been premised on the logic of countering the Soviet Union, but with it came a bridled optimism that engagement with US business, integration into the world and "opening-up" would be profoundly beneficial for both parties.

To this end, the foundation of US-China relations helped pioneer a mighty change in China that has seen it develop into a global economic powerhouse, something that, contrary to the hostile rhetoric today, has been profoundly beneficial to the US, unlocking the bonanza of the Chinese market.

However, the US' ideas about China have long since changed.

A misleading train of thought that has become dominant in Washington, DC, posits that the relationship with China should not be viewed in interdependent, mutually beneficial and relative terms, but as a zero-sum game of "win" or "lose". This erroneously depicts China's gain as the US' loss, which subsequently rolls over into the idea that the US is locked in an uncompromising struggle for global hegemony with China, and that this ought to require the rollback of globalization, the cutting up of supply chains, the forcing of countries to take sides, and the formation of confrontational coalitions. The idea that both countries could get along and coexist is treated by many as taboo.

In spite of this, 2023 was overall a more reasonable year in China-US relations, ushering in more stability. President Xi Jinping made an official visit to the US at the APEC Summit in San Francisco and met with US President Joe Biden. While the results of this meeting cannot be called a substantial breakthrough, it was nonetheless a "cooling off" that gave more assurance and provided more room for engagement.

Critics might argue that this provides little assurance for 2024, a year that will perhaps be another unpredictable period because of the international situation, which continues to deteriorate.

In addition, the US presidential election is looming, and one should expect China-bashing, which could disrupt relations and political decision-making. Therefore it is even more important to promote conciliatory relations and compromise between the two countries and avoid creating situations that would promote the escalation of tension. For this reason, the year should be a period of diplomatic caution and restraint.

However, the bigger picture should not be lost, China-US relations have thrived and succeeded for 45 years now. Both countries have, in spite of many differences, learned to accept and manage their differences, so why should that change now? And why should all those years be squandered through pursuit of ideological and hegemonic goals?

The US and China absolutely can coexist, and the two are capable of navigating global challenges together and finding a position for the greater good. We should look back on these fond memories and also be prepared to be optimistic that things can get better, and in turn challenge the "fatalistic" view that assumes that both countries must struggle against each other until one side is victorious.

US-China relations were built on the premise that two countries with very different ideologies can in fact get along, that there does not need to be an existential struggle, and that the two nations can benefit from each other.

The author is a British political and international relations analyst.