More uncertainty in European security situation

The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Nov 7 announcing that Russia had completed its withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). In response, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization announced they were suspending their participation in the treaty.

As early as 2007, Russia announced a suspension of its participation in the treaty. In 2015, after being sanctioned by NATO over the Crimea crisis, Russia announced its intention to withdraw from the treaty completely. In June, Russia issued its withdrawal notice in accordance with the treaty's requirement for 150-day notice. On Nov 7, Russia finished its withdrawal.

The US and Europe have subtle differences in their attitude. Jake Sullivan, advisor to the US president for national security affairs, and John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications of the US National Security Council, both made strong remarks. In the US Congress, the two parties issued a rare joint statement with harsh words on the matter. Obviously, the US is watching the fire from a distance and regards the invalidation of the treaty as an opportunity rather than a crisis. After all, whether Europe is peaceful or not has limited impact on it.

Some Western European countries, however, are worried that the abolition of the treaty will lead to increased uncertainty in the European security situation and they will be forced to sacrifice their economy, welfare and people's livelihoods in order to strengthen their military.

Many experts on security and arms nonproliferation believe that the impact of the withdrawal of Russia and NATO from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe is limited because the treaty was not that effective. However, the CFE is merely a microcosm of the similar fate of a series of Cold War-type arms control treaties that the US and/or Russia have exited.

Obviously, the abandonment of the CFE has significant symbolic significance, indicating that the transatlantic security framework is facing uncertainties and the possibility of NATO using "Cold War-style arms control treaties" to contain Russia is becoming increasingly unlikely.