US stokes divisions on BRI, but will Italy fall into trap?

Italy made an "improvised and atrocious" decision in joining the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) four years ago, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said in an interview published on Sunday, claiming the initiative had done little to boost Italy's exports. This is believed to be the strongest message from the Italian government on the country's future in the BRI framework.

In contrary to Crosetto's assertion, Italy's export to China surged by 58 percent year-on-year in the first five months of this year. Admittedly, Italy's participation in the BRI, as Crosetto claimed, has increased Chinese exports to the country. But this is not bad news for Rome. Cost-efficient products from China mean Italians have more options in consumption, and thus can alleviate the impacts of inflation on local people.

The Italian government should not make the mistake to regard that the BRI benefits China in a unilateral fashion, Marco Donati, deputy general manager of the China Ocean Shipping Company in Italy said in an interview with Xinhua, adding that his country should be "smart enough" use the BRI to make the Italian market more competitive.

Since the signing of the BRI memorandum of understanding in 2019, both China and Italy have achieved numerous tangible outcomes in trade, economy and business cooperation. Under the BRI framework, Italian products can reach the Chinese market – known for its huge consumption potentiality – in a smoother and faster way. The improvement in logistics is vital for Italy to be more competitive in the international market. In addition, the BRI means more opportunities for small and medium-sized private firms in Italy.

But despite the fruitful results, the Italian government has, on several occasions, signaled its intention to exit the initiative. It is worth noting that Crosetto made the remarks just days after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met US President Joe Biden in the White House. Apparently, Italy's shifted stance on BRI is, to a large extent, a result of US pressure.

Since its decision to join the BRI, the Italian government has been bombarded by Washington. The New York Times bluntly criticized Italy as a "Trojan Horse," "allowing China's economic – and potentially military and political – expansion to reach into the heart of Europe." As the only G7 member in the BRI, Italy has been repeatedly labelled as the "traitor" of the West.

Under US pressure, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi froze the BRI agreement in 2021. "Since the Ukraine crisis, there is a stronger demand for political correctness and unity between the United States and its Western allies," said Wang Shuo, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University's School of International Relations.

Now, with the new government in place, Washington has intensified efforts to woo its ally to quit the initiative. Clinging to the Cold War mentality, American politicians insist on discrediting the multi-win BRI as a security "threat" and an attempt by China to split the West. Against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical confrontation against Beijing, Washington has seized every opportunity to draw allies into its anti-China club, and pulling them out from the BRI is the first step.

The change of the Italian government – with far-right populist Brothers of Italy party being the dominant force – is an opportunity that Washington cannot miss to drive a dredge between Rome and Beijing. The incumbent government, according to Zhao Junjie, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of European Studies, tends to stand with the US on political and security issues. This, to some extent, could influence Rome's final decision on the BRI.

Since its establishment, the BRI has been a platform to build a community of shared future for mankind, with all parties' needs and interests having been taken into account. This means the initiative is not an anti-West geopolitical club or a military alliance as some Westerners hype. It is open to the international community, including all Western countries.

The BRI's inclusiveness is widely recognized. Kostas Gouliamos, former rector of European University Cyprus, said earlier that contrary to protecting the narrow interests of a group of countries that divide the world, China's endeavors to promote multilateralism via the BRI. However, the US, out of Cold War hysteria, insists on viewing the initiative from a zero-sum perspective.

It is not time for confrontation. Almost all international players, including Italy, are clear about it. It is worth noting that despite some unfavorable remarks on the BRI, both Meloni and Crosetto stressed the necessity of preserving China relations. Meloni, after the meeting with Biden, said her government was still deliberating on the final BRI decision and announced a trip to Beijing in the near future. Clearly, Italy does not want to ruin ties with Beijing, and has no intention to pick sides between the two powers.

However, while China is actively offering its solution to build a community of shared future for mankind, the US has been forcing Italy and other Western allies to make a choice. Washington wants to stoke conflicts. Whether Italy will fall into this trap is waiting to be seen.