Agricultural strategies must adapt to new climate cycle

The high temperature and drought in southern China this year is the longest and most serious in the region since 1961.

The agricultural policymakers should not only think about how to achieve the autumn harvest this year, but more importantly how to adapt agricultural development to the extreme weather conditions that are becoming more frequent.

Abnormal weather conditions have arguably become a new normal. The 400 millimeter precipitation line has moved markedly northward in China, reaching the historically dry regions in the basin of the Yellow River, while the historically pluvial regions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are becoming dry.

Similar changes are also being observed elsewhere in the world, such as in Europe and Africa, indicating that a new climate cycle may be approaching. In geological history, there have been many repeated ice ages and interglacial periods, the most recent Little Ice Age occurred between 1350 and 1850.

And if the world is facing a new climate cycle, it is unlikely that we will be able to cope with it simply by carbon emissions reduction measures.

As agricultural production is directly affected by climate change, the adjustment of agricultural strategy is more urgent. As such, China should carry out preemptive systematic research on agricultural zoning, crop variety selection, cropping systems, management and conservation measures as soon as possible.

Climate change is a double-edged sword. While it brings high temperature and drought in the south, it also makes the dry north wet. That means parts of the northern pastoral zone will become suitable for farming.

The country should make good use of the new natural conditions given by the climate change. Herders in the north can do more farming, while farmers in the south can divert to animal husbandry and drought tolerant commercial crops.

It should also be noted that the high temperature and drought in the south are not necessarily a fixed trend. Scientific research has suggested that the new climate cycle may alternate between droughts and floods. Therefore, the country must strengthen the research and development of different varieties of crops and update the planting system, and flexibly configure the corresponding crop variety structure and planting structure according to the new climate conditions.

We should be humble in the face of the climate cycle. But thanks to modern science and technology, we should be able to make more preparations for different weather conditions than our ancestors.