Regional concerns over Afghan security vacuum

The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan has triggered security concerns in neighboring countries as prospects of a negotiated settlement have diminished. Since the intra-Afghan dialogue reached a stalemate and the Taliban are engaged in mounting insurgency, regional states fear the conflict may spill over to neighboring states.

Notwithstanding the peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban in February 2020 in Doha, Qatar's capital, violence did not end, notably because of a number of shortcomings in the US-Taliban talks and peace accord.

First, Washington held backdoor talks with the Taliban without involving the Afghan government, regional stakeholders or its international allies, which hampered the formation of a global consensus on a possible political settlement.

Second, the accord does not mention any of the ideals once touted by the US and NATO, nor does it make it mandatory for the Taliban to renounce violence or includes the Taliban's commitment to a peaceful Afghanistan. As a result, the Taliban has launched fresh attacks on Afghan forces and killed civilians as a bargaining chip in the intra-Afghan dialogue, which began with much fanfare in Qatar but soon fizzled out.

In a nutshell, US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, who signed a "withdrawal agreement", to quote Taliban political spokesperson Naeem Wardak, made two political blunders: sidelining the Afghan government and regional states from US-Taliban talks, and signing a peace accord which may not lead to a reduction in violence or declaration of a permanent cease-fire.

The Taliban's mounting insurgency has raised concerns at the national and international level. The Afghan people, who view the Taliban as national pariahs, fear that the gains made in the last couple of decades in terms of democracy, women's rights and liberties, as well as the Afghan Constitution will be at the mercy of the Taliban's radical religious ideology.

As for regional states and the international community, they fear incursions by the Taliban, and see the extremist group as a direct threat to their security. They are also afraid that the security vacuum in Afghanistan is likely to be filled by al-Qaida and its equally radical affiliates.

The US' decision to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan has forced many regional stakeholders to review their priorities and strategies－so much so that countries such as Iran and Russia and some Middle East states, in order to prevent the Taliban's influence from spilling beyond Afghanistan's borders, are making overtures to the extremist group.

Some countries even hosted Taliban delegations recently to help break the peace deadlock and persuade the group to resume the intra-Afghan talks, which prompted the Taliban and the Afghan government to hold a meeting in Qatar recently.

The role of regional and global stakeholders is highly important in the Afghan peace process. For example, as the regional countries refused to support the establishment of an "Islamic Emirate", the Taliban backtracked and are no longer insisting on establishing an emirate system in Afghanistan.

The Taliban, unlike in the 1990s, are also seeking legitimacy and global recognition. So to prevent extremist incursions, regional and global players have to press the Taliban to negotiate with the Afghan government and honor their agreement with Washington.

Moreover, the United Nations should take part in the Afghan peace process and push for a political settlement, as Article 1 of the UN Charter stipulates the purpose of the UN is "to maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace".

And the US should stop being indifferent to regional and international concerns. Despite claiming to uphold the torch of liberal and democratic values and be a staunch advocate of women's rights and liberties in Afghanistan, the US, much to the Afghan people's chagrin, seems unconcerned to the threat the Taliban pose to women's rights and liberties, and their decades of achievements.

The Afghan public is not ready to stake the country's Constitution, so the US and its allies need to pressure the Taliban to accept the future political structure approved by the Afghan people since a balanced political framework enriched with republic values will be more conducive to regional security.

The US also needs to form a global consensus on the Afghan peace process, and should not withdraw all its forces from the country until the intra-Afghan talks bear the desired results. Afghanistan cannot succeed without regional and international powers recommitting to the country's stability.

Both the warring sides in Afghanistan and regional players agree that a military victory is unachievable. Therefore, the Kabul administration has urged the Taliban to continue the talks with sincere intentions－needed to broker an agreement acceptable to both sides－and integrate into the future political system. Afghanistan's neighboring countries, too, have said a political settlement is their priority. If the talks fail, political pundits believe, it could lead to another civil war in the country with devastating repercussions for regional states.

It would be advisable for the UN to lead the reconciliation process, in case it is deadlocked again, and for all stakeholders to pressure the Taliban to end their violent offensives as the first step toward peace. If the Taliban insist on military operations, the bargaining space will shrink and re-organizing the talks will be very difficult. The constructive engagement of regional and international parties will be of determining significance for a political settlement in Afghanistan.

The author is a political analyst and senior writer in Daily Outlook Afghanistan.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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