UK to enter 'uncharted territory' as rules lift

Self-isolation requirement set to end for people who are fully vaccinated

Britain's health minister Sajid Javid has warned that COVID-19 infection rates in the United Kingdom could surge to 100,000 per day in the weeks ahead as restrictions are lifted.

The minister, who took on the role nearly two weeks ago after the resignation of Matt Hancock, also said England will be entering "uncharted territory" as lockdown rules are removed because the predicted numbers become "less reliable".

Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed on Monday that restrictions in England would almost certainly be ended on July 19, including the laws on mask wearing and rules on social distancing. He had said he expected infection numbers in the country may be up to 50,000 per day by that date.

Speaking on the BBC's Today radio program on Tuesday morning, Javid agreed that the numbers will be "at least" double what they are now, but added that, as the weeks pass, this figure is less predictable.

He said: "As we ease into the summer, we expect them to rise significantly, and they could go as high as 100,000 case numbers per day. We want to be straightforward about this in terms of case numbers, but what matters more than anything is hospitalization and death numbers, and that is where the link has been severely weakened."

Speaking on the BBC Breakfast television program, Javid said: "We're moving from general policy to guidance, because of the strength of the vaccine wall of defense.

"As we move back to a normal, we can trust people's own sense of personal responsibility. We can take advantage of the vaccine, and the take-up has been huge."

He agreed it was possible that new variants of COVID-19 could emerge, potentially with resistance to current vaccines, and admitted that some restrictions might have to be reimposed in the future.

"I hope not, and that's certainly not in our plan," he said. "The one thing that no one can say for certain anywhere in the world is the future progression of the virus," he added.

He said powers would remain in place for local health officials to reintroduce social distancing rules in an emergency.

Labour Party MP Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, said the full lifting of restrictions was premature and some measures needed to remain.

Speaking on the BBC Today program, Ashworth said: "We want to see the economy reopen in a balanced way, of course we want people to have their freedoms back, but we don't want a high-risk free-for-all.

"Remember the context, infections are rising steeply, hospitalizations are increasing, more people will die, and many will be exposed to this virus and develop long-term chronic health conditions as a result.

"We know from studies that the people can still contract the Delta variant of the virus, even if double jabbed."

Asked how the Labour Party would handle the situation, he said: "We would say yes, we need to reopen, but we would maintain some precautions such as mask wearing on public transport and in shops, give support to premises to install air filtration systems, and we would pay people proper sick pay and give isolation support."

Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, a government adviser, told the Today program that the vaccination program would greatly reduce hospitalizations, but said there was significant risk involved with lifting the restrictions. He said some kind of "course correction" might be needed later.

"The challenge is, there's still the potential of getting very large numbers of cases and so if we get very high numbers of cases a day, 150,000 or 200,000, it could still cause some pressure to the health system.

"This is a slight gamble, it's a slight experiment at the moment, and I think it's justifiable and I'm reasonably optimistic, but policy will have to remain flexible."

Speaking in Parliament later on Tuesday, Javid announced self-isolation rule changes, from August 16, for those in England who are fully vaccinated.

It brings a requirement to test rather than self-isolate for those who are double jabbed and who have come into close contact with a positive case, as long as they had their second dose at least two weeks earlier. Anyone who tested positive would still have to self-isolate.

Education Secretary Gavin Williamson was due to give more details later on how the government plans to relax COVID-19 rules for schools in England.