No positive end in sight for Brexit impasse as deadline nears

On Tuesday, the House of Commons, the lower house of Britain's Parliament, rejected the Brexit deal Prime Minister Theresa May had reached with the European Union by 432 to 202 votes, a staggering margin of 230 votes, the highest in Britain's parliamentary history.

Claiming the vote would have a bearing on the fortunes of the United Kingdom in the decades to come, many British media outlets consider May's crushing defeat as an unprecedented disaster for a government in modern times while others view it as the strongest opposition to a government plan since the end of World War II.

Although the outcome was widely expected, and perhaps even May knew what lay in store for her in Parliament before the vote, very few expected the margin of defeat to be so big. In a desperate bid to win more votes, she had even deferred the vote, originally scheduled for Dec 11, by more than one month and worked nonstop to make the Brexit deal more acceptable to parliamentarians, but to no avail. And just before the vote on Tuesday, government officials said they expected the defeat margin to be within 100, only to get a slap in the face hours later.

May's deal covered most EU-UK disputes

May's Brexit deal dealt with most of the disputes between the UK and the EU, as well as mapped out a framework for future UK-EU relations. The deal covered the rights of citizens on both sides and nailed down a "breakup fee" of 39 billion pounds ($50.4 billion). It had also set a Brexit transitional period till the end of 2020 so as to not have a "hard border" with Ireland.

So why did the members of Parliament still reject it?

Hard-line Brexiteers fear the UK would become dependent on the EU if it remains in the bloc's Customs Union and is unable to withdraw on its own. The Democratic Unionist Party is worried that Northern Ireland would be alienated from the UK if it is included in the EU's single market while the rest of Britain remains in the Customs Union. And the "remainers" want the UK to edge closer toward a Norway-style deal to facilitate a soft Brexit. Which shows that, despite May's constant appeal to MPs to vote for the deal in order to safeguard national interests, all the parties are trying to fulfill their own political goals.

Hard-line Brexiteers want the UK to cut the Gordian knot and exit the EU once and for all, as the UK cannot afford to pay the huge amount of membership fee and act as the EU's henchman at the same time.

By contrast, the Labour Party has not made any Brexit propositions yet. All it wants is to dislodge the Conservative Party government, which has prompted it to oppose any deal May has offered. And the DUP wishes to teach May a lesson because of the way she has handled Northern Ireland's border issue.

Strategically, with about 70 days to go before the Brexit deadline expires, May is trying to garner more public support by amplifying the fear of a "no-deal", and political parties are waiting to see who blinks first.

Berxiteers would prefer a no-deal

The hard-line Brexiteers would prefer a no-deal, as in that case Britain would have nothing to fear once it strengthens its management. The "remainers", too, would like a stalemate because they believe if all other options are exhausted, public opinion would reverse, generating the possibility of a second referendum on Britain leaving the EU.

Despite being furious and divided, the MPs once again dealt a blow to May (though she survived a no-confidence motion moved by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on Wednesday). However, the possibility of May resigning is low, as she has pledged to step down after Brexit while still enjoying majority support from the Conservative Party. Also, staying in power is more important than Brexit for the Tories, as that would help them to get a firm foothold on major issues. And although the DUP is making a fuss, it doesn't have the numbers in Parliament to turn the tide－it has only 10 MPs.

According to rules, May has to present an alternative deal in three working days. So she is most likely to restart the Brexit negotiations with the EU. True, the EU has not completely shut the door on the negotiations, and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas suggested more talks. But it remains debatable what May can achieve from another round of talks. Just as May said, "Now MPs have made clear what they don't want, we must all work constructively together to set out what Parliament does want."

What is the solution to Brexit problem?

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has warned Britain to "get your act together and then tell us what it is you want", and European Council President Donald Tusk has tweeted mockingly: "If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?"

Given the margin of defeat for May's deal was 230 votes, small adjustments to it would be of no use. Only a thorough makeover could make it pass muster. But that would be possible only if the UK and the EU agree to extend the Brexit deadline.

In fresh negotiations, Britain can change its stance, and all the appeals will be back in contention including those on Norway-style relations, permanent Customs Union, a no-deal and a second referendum. Yet it is unlikely the parties will reach a consensus on any one of them－and after all this chaos, the Brexit impasse could end up without any sensible solution.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article was first published in Beijing News.