The message Secretary Mattis could take back to the US

Editor's note: Lyu Xiang works at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

For foreign policy decision-makers and experts, one thing particularly difficult is to understand how the Trump Administration is governing the US and making policies relating to other countries, most of which have already seen the US as an Unpredictable States of America.

Specifically, experts in and outside the US feel confused by the confusing and contradicting representations and remarks by the President, his White House advisers and cabinet officials. No expert dares to pledge he understands who speaks for whom, who is responsible for what. In a few cases, people even don’t know if President Trump speaks for the US government. (Consider, the former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson once mentioned President Trump by saying that the President “speaks for himself”.)

This bizarre dynamic is desperately frustrating for people of both the US and other countries. It comes that the Trump Administration is contradicting to itself and therefore even the traditional US allies have lost their patience.

The only accomplished politician in Trump's cabinet

Now, James Mattis, Secretary of Defense of the US, is visiting China and other East Asian countries. A natural and legitimate question is, to what extent, this former 4-star general could be seen as a representative of the US government in general and the President in particular.

Widespread news reports suggest that Secretary Mattis has been sidelined by the President from the top decision-making process for quite long time. The US news outlet NBC just said Mattis had not been involved in discussions on a long list of critical issues: freezing “war games” in the Republic of Korea (ROK), withdrawal from the Iran deal, and even the establishment of a “Space Force” within the Pentagon.

It’s reported that, when Rex Tillerson was the Secretary of State and H.R. McMaster the President’s security adviser, Secretary Mattis is one of the three “adults” in the Trump administration, meaning that the three “professionals” could somehow help the President be less capricious in decision-makings. However, after Tillerson and McMaster were forced to leave, Mattis has been lonely and sadly sidelined.

China's firm stance

No matter what happens with Secretary Mattis, he is still the de jure head of the US Department of Defense, the largest organization in the world in terms of either budget or payrolls. Just in the ongoing fiscal year, he is the person responsible for the defense expenditure of 700 billion US dollars.

And, therefore, no matter whether Secretary Mattis is, in fact, representing the US policies, the Chinese hosts should be well prepared for his China tour. The hosts need to listen to him – at least, he is one voice within the Trump administration.

Based on what the Secretary said at the Shangri-la forum in early June, we could expect he would raise questions to his Chinese counterparts issues like the Korean Peninsula, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, so on and so forth.

What Secretary Mattis would say is not known, but what the Chinese hosts would reply is highly predictable just because China’s positions on all these issues have been consistent and persistent.

What messages Mattis takes to the US

I believe the Chinese hosts would like to see that Secretary Mattis could bring the following messages back to the US:

1.The best and utmost security interests of China are focusing on the peace, stability and development in the whole surrounding areas. Therefore, China will do whatever it takes to help and defend the currently peaceful situation.

2.The summit between the US and DPRK leaders in Singapore was a successful one, and China feels especially pleased to see the de facto “dual suspension” or “freeze-for-freeze” arrangements between the two countries. China will persistently do a lot to boost the US-DPKK peace process and maintain a stable Korean peninsula and North-east Asia.

3.The Taiwan issue is relating to China’s core interests and crucial to a sustainable China-US relation. Any substantial US intervention that is leaning to the independence of Taiwan will definitely cause China to do whatever it takes.

4.The South China Sea has been a peaceful area for a very long time and all relevant claimant countries have agreed to “suspend the disputes and develop jointly” approach. China’s rotating installations of certain military facilities on certain Chinese islands in the sea are not aiming at any specific countries but the necessary defense postures for defending the peace, stability and safe passage of all ships navigating through the sea area.

There could be more topics for Secretary Mattis to talk with his Chinese hosts, but I believe the above-mentioned are the four major points. We don’t know if Secretary Mattis would have an “eye-to-eye” opportunity to report to President Trump after his trip, but we do hope he would bring these messages back to the US.