Trade issues weigh on Dow industrials

The ongoing trade friction between the US and China is getting much of the blame for the stock market's recent tepid performance.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower for the fifth consecutive trading session, falling 103 points to 24,987.

The S&P 500 lost 5.8 points to 2,774, while the Nasdaq Composite scraped higher by 0.7 point, to 7,747.03.

Dow component Boeing - the largest US exporter to China - fell 0.9 percent and was the index's biggest drag. China accounted for nearly $12 billion of the aircraft maker's revenue in 2017, or 12.75 percent of its sales.

"In the early days of the Trump administration, Boeing was very successful in making an ally of the president, who early on visited the Charleston plant where it makes 787s," Ted Reed, who covers airlines for Forbes, told China Daily. "But now it's unclear whether the administration is still listening as carefully to Boeing.

"So far, China hasn't proposed anything that has significant [impact] on Boeing, but of course that could change," Reed said.

Boeing is building a 737 finishing plant in a joint venture outside Shanghai.

Another Dow stock, Caterpillar, whose sales of heavy construction equipment in China have been bolstered by the Belt and Road Initiative, dipped 0.9 percent.

Semiconductor makers, which count China as a major market, also slipped. Chipmaker Intel, a Dow stock that trades on the Nasdaq, was down 3.4 percent on tariff concerns and a downgrade by Northland Securities.

"The US equity market is comprised of globally oriented, multinational corporations that have significant revenue exposure to both European and Chinese clients. Tariffs could negatively impact US multinationals' earnings in addition to disrupting global supply chains," Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer of China-focused KraneShares, told China Daily.

"You are seeing the trade narratives hammered, or at least running into some significant headwinds, and as a result you are seeing compression in valuations there," said Peter Kenny, senior market strategist at Global Markets Advisory Group in New York.

"Trade tensions with China have consistently been the biggest driver of equity volatility recently," said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell, marketwatch.com reported. "If the current trade skirmish with China were to escalate into a full-blown trade war, it could potentially have a materially negative impact on corporate earnings growth," he said.

US President Donald Trump fired the latest trade salvo on Monday: "I directed the United States Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent," he said in a statement. "If China increases its tariffs yet again, we will meet that action by pursuing additional tariffs on another $200 billion of goods," adding that the trade relationship " must be much more equitable".

After Trump had announced tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports last Friday. China responded on Saturday with an additional 25 percent levy on $50 billion of American agricultural and auto exports. Both nations' tariffs would start with $34 billion on July 6.

"The relative policy calm was shattered late in the week as trade tensions escalated," said David Joy, the chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. "There is still time for negotiation. But the inexorable march toward a trade war with China took a significant step forward."

Another analyst sees the tariffs' impact as exaggerated.

"Trade tensions appear to escalate. However, it continues to be an escalation of trade tariff proposals as no tariffs have gone into effect yet," wrote Ivan Feinseth, director of research and chief investment officer at Tigress Financial Partners, CNN reported.

"Any weakness in stocks based on trade rhetoric continues to be a buying opportunity," he said, adding that "this is a war of trade rhetoric rather than a war of trade tariffs and reflective of President Trump's negotiating style".

Reuters and Bloomberg contributed to this story.

williamhennelly@chinadailyusa.com