How to lose friends the Tsai way

Loss of 'diplomatic partners' erodes 'legitimacy' of Tsai

China and Burkina Faso resumed diplomatic relations on Saturday, after the West African country severed "diplomatic ties" with Taiwan on Thursday. After the Dominican Republic, it is the second country to do so within one month.

Since Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen assumed office two years ago, four countries have cut their "diplomatic ties" with the island and the number of countries having "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan has dropped to 18.

That shows the last few countries refusing to recognize the one-China principle in the world have started changing their mind. The Taiwan authorities might try to stop this, but it is an irreversible trend for them to lose "diplomatic partners".

It is out of their own national interests that these countries decided to sever "diplomatic ties" with Taiwan. In the past, Taiwan authorities used to purchase "diplomatic ties", namely maintaining ties with certain countries by offering economic and other assistance to them. However, as the Chinese mainland gains more influence in the world, these countries want to keep good ties with it.

That is also what the four countries' governments pointed out when announcing their decision. Just like Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said, this is a correct decision made by the Burkina Faso government, in keeping with the trend of the times and the world.

Besides that, the pro-"independence" attitude and activities of the Taiwan authorities also helped to worsen the situations for Taiwan. When former Taiwan leader Ma Ying-jeou was in power, he recognized the 1992 Consensus which embodies the one-China principle, and strongly objected to the so-called "Taiwan-independence"; As a result, cross-Straits ties remained well in general, and Taiwan did not lose any of its "friends" within eight years.

In comparison, the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party has lost points in "diplomacy" while ruling the island. Tsai has so far lost four "diplomatic partners" in the past two years; Chen Shui-bian, another DPP leader who supported pro-independence activities, lost nine "diplomatic partners" when he was in power from 2000 to 2008.

The loss of "diplomatic partners" is eroding the "legitimacy" of the Taiwan authorities. Especially, the fact that increasingly fewer countries recognize the Taiwan authorities in the international society shows the authorities have little and still less influence globally.

Within the island, the DPP is also losing appeal to voters because its leaders cannot keep the status quo as they promised during elections. Their promises have already been broken.

Tsai might try taking counter-measures. After Burkina Faso announced severing "diplomatic ties" with Taiwan on Thursday, the Taiwan authorities had already taken "counter-measures" by limiting mainland residents from travelling to Taiwan. It can be expected that Tsai might invest more money to maintain "diplomatic ties" with its remaining 18 "friends". Reports show that the Taiwan authorities even promised to provide monetary assistance to Solomon Islands to host Pacific Games. Besides, it might also improve actual ties with the US.

The Chinese mainland must be cautious about the possible actions the Taiwan authorities might take. But whatever they do, the trend of China's rise and the end of separatism in Taiwan is irreversible. The only correct choice for the Taiwan leaders is to come back to the 1992 Consensus and stick to the one-China principle.

The author is an associate researcher at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.