Story doesn't end despite Merkel's assured win in election

Children from Syria hold placards as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a top candidate of the Christian Democratic Union Party (CDU) for the upcoming general elections, speaks during an election rally in Wismar, Germany, Sept 19, 2017. [Photo/Agencies]

BERLIN - It's almost certain that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Union Party will win the most votes in the federal election on Sept 24, but uncertainties still remain concerning the performance of smaller parties, which may play key roles in the formation of a new German government.

According to the latest polling, the Union, formed by Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister Christian Social Union (CSU), are enjoying a comfortable lead over the Social Democratic Party (SPD), with a support rate of around 36 percent versus around 23 percent.

German people and media organizations believe that the CDU/CSU will win the most votes and the SPD the second most in the election to be held in less than a week.

Despite SPD leader Martin Schulz's spare-no-effort attitude, many German people believe that the SPD lost their last chance to change the game after the bloodless TV debate between Merkel and the former European Parliament president.

But the story will not end here, as what's more important is the formation of the new government, in which smaller parties will play key roles, or even serve as kingmakers by joining hands with one of the two big parties.

These smaller parties -- the Greens, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), Die Linke (The Left), and the far-right Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) -- are in a tight race to become the third largest party in the Bundestag.

According to polling results, the support rates of all four of the smaller parties stand at eight to 11 percent.

However, voter turnout, uncertain as it is, could still be a game changer in the election. Many people have not yet decided whether they will vote or, if they do, which party they will vote for. Schulz said, perhaps in exaggeration, that almost half of voters had not decided.

Among those who are undecided, some believe that Merkel's refugee policies are too radical and don't take into consideration the interests of the German people. However, they do not want to support the anti-immigration AfD either.

Some German voters perceive all the parties as having little difference to one another and their policies are converging, thus resulting in their indecision.

Voter turnout and swing votes may not change the situation between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, but may largely decide the standings of smaller parties.

The German election rule sets a 5-percent-vote hurdle to be elected into the Bundestag, excluding other smaller parties. The German electoral system makes it very difficult for any one party to form a government on its own.