Brookings' David Dollar to keep eye on macro policy

Q: What key topics you care about at the upcoming NPC/CPPCC sessions?

A: I pay a lot of attention to premier's work report, and then the speeches from the head of the central bank, ministry of finance and NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission), because I think there are some question marks about China's macroeconomic policy right now. There has been a lot of debt that is being built up in the Chinese economy. Chinese officials talked about this. The only way to get that under control is to tighten up monetary policy, slow down the growth of credit. And that might bring down the growth rate a little bit. So, what's the target growth rate? And there are measures that can counteract that. I think China needs to stimulate consumption. So, I am going to look for those more-macro speeches - You know what are the details of monetary and fiscal policies, and also structural reforms. Recently the State Council said it would open up more sectors to foreign investment, but it didn't really provide much detail.

Q: What the Trump government would be looking for?

A: Frankly the same thing. First, what would like to happen with macro policy - monetary and fiscal, but then the structural reforms. Within that economic team for Trump, everybody is still concerned that the US has a large trade deficit. Very simply, you can solve it by US exporting more. China opening up more market, that will help. Or you can solve it by US importing less, that's not going to be a happy solution. So, I think officials who like to see US export more will be looking and asking what China is doing in terms of opening up more and more markets and structural reforms.

David Dollar, senior fellow of John L. Thornton China Center of the Brookings Institution, and former World Bank country director in China and former US Treasury emissary in Beijing. [Chen Weihua/China Daily]