Trump more likely to get in war over South China Sea if he wins, says US expert

Donald Trump is more likely to get in a war in the South China Sea if he wins the US presidential election while ‘president' Hillary Clinton will continue the dialogue and cooperation process with China on trade issues although she always appears to be tough on China, said John Bellinger from Arnold and Porter's National Security and Public International Law Practices.

Bellinger was making remarks during a seminar focusing on how the US presidential elections would affect China-US relations and business ties on Oct 26 in Beijing. The seminar was hosted by Center for China & Globalization (CCG), together with Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy.

"Many think Donald Trump will be more supportive on issues related to China, as they think he is a businessman so he will value the importance of trade. But Trump will be far worse for China since he is unpredictable and irrational," Bellinger said.

At the meantime, Bellinger believed that although Hillary Clinton "is always tough on China", she knows China better than Trump. Clinton will continue the dialogue and cooperation process that started between China and US on the trade issues, instead of calling a pause once she is elected.

Another expert agreed.

"Clinton undoubtedly recognizes this is a highly interconnected relationship with China, which needs to be managed strategically," Claire Reade, Senior Associate with the Freeman Chair in China Studies at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said. "And Trump seems to blame China for almost everything."

On some conditions, the White House may not be willing to have China involved more in domestic affairs. Reade indicated that although there have been ongoing conversations between China and the US government about infrastructure, with China in particular interested in ways to facilitate Chinese investment in the US, the US federal government does not actually put out many of these contracts.

"But there are innovation and opportunity that require open exchange," Reade added. "And that's a good thing."

He Weiwen, Vice-President of CCG, proposed a more neutral view.

He emphasized that proposals from presidential campaign did not represent the action in the future, and the detailed trade policy would depend more on the situation after election. "The basic policy will not change no matter who will be the president eventually," he said.

Center for China and Globalization (CCG) is an independent, non-profit think tank based in Beijing. It conducts research on a range of social science areas, including world affairs, international talent issues, sustainable development, entrepreneurship and globalization.