Greece votes in referendum with future in euro in doubt

NIGHTMARE RESULT

Supporters of Greece and of the 'NO' campaign applaud a speaker at the 'Greek solidarity festival' in Trafalgar Square, London, Britain, July 4, 2015. The event was held in support of the people of Greece and the cancellation of debt, ahead of their referendum on Sunday. [Photo/Agencies]

Greeks are likely to face more financial and political turmoil in the days and weeks ahead.

"All in all, Prime Minister Alexis Tispras' early exit from office is still more likely than Grexit," wrote Wolfgang Piccoli of Teneo Intelligence.

"Regardless of Sunday's result, significant levels of political volatility are here to stay."

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis promised Greeks on the eve of the vote that European creditors would immediately have to grant Athens better terms, including massive debt relief and less austerity, if they voted 'No'. EU ministers and officials have warned that his pledge is a cruel illusion.

If Greeks vote 'Yes' to the bailout, both Tsipras and Varoufakis are expected to resign -- triggering a new chapter of uncertainty as political parties try to cobble together a national unity government to keep talks with lenders going until elections are held.

European creditors have said a 'Yes' vote will resurrect hopes of aid to Greece. But capital controls, and default last week to the IMF, have undermined Greece's economic standing and creditworthiness, so a new bailout package would probably entail harsher terms than those on offer even last week.

A 'No' vote would bring even greater uncertainty, and the prospect of a sudden financial collapse.

European policymakers have openly warned such a result would be read as a rejection of talks with creditors and the euro, leaving Greece to fend for itself without any realistic prospect of funds to avoid bankruptcy.

Much would depend on the European Central Bank, which will review on Monday morning its policy on emergency liquidity, which Greek lenders rely on.

The ECB could decide to freeze the liquidity or cut it off altogether if Greeks vote 'No', or if Athens subsequently defaults on a bond redemption to the ECB on July 20.

There is concern that an inconclusive result might sow further confusion, and possibly lead to violent protests, rather than sending a clear signal about Greek intentions.

"The nightmare result would be 51-49 percent in either direction," a senior German official said. "And the chances of this are not insignificant."