Chavez cancer ordeal brings uncertainty

Uncertainty is hanging over Venezuela three days ahead of the scheduled swearing-in of President Hugo Chavez, who is struggling to recover from his fourth cancer surgery in 18 months in Cuba.

The country's main opposition coalition insists that Chavez must take at least a temporary leave if his health keeps him from taking the oath of office on Jan 10 as established by Venezuela's constitution.

Despite rumors of a power struggle during Chavez's more than three-week absence, his allies showed unity on Saturday, re-electing the ruling party's Diosdado Cabello as parliamentary speaker.

The illness will most likely keep Chavez from being sworn in for a third term on Thursday as scheduled, said Xu Shicheng, a researcher on Latin American studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

"The president will continue being president beyond Jan 10, nobody should have any doubt about that," Cabello said after his election, accusing the opposition of fomenting a "coup d'etat", AFP reported.

Venezuela's Vice-President Nicolas Maduro called the swearing-in a "formality" and said he too would stay in office without taking any oath until there was an opportunity to do so, according to AFP.

Chavez, 58, was re-elected on Oct 7 to another six-year term as president.

According to Reuters, if Chavez had to step down, or died, Cabello would take over the running of the country as Assembly president and a new election would be organized within 30 days.

Chavez's heir apparent, Maduro, would be the ruling Socialist Party candidate, Reuters said.

Venezuela's main opposition coalition insists that Chavez must take at least a temporary leave if his health keeps him from being sworn in on Thursday, and it called for a new election.

If a new election were held, Maduro has a better chance of defeating opposition leader Henrique Capriles, Xu told China Daily, citing poll results favoring Maduro.

Regardless of whether Maduro or Capriles becomes the new leader of Venezuela, the country's relationship with China, especially exchanges between the two governments, is unlikely to change, Xu said.

The China-Venezuela relationship has developed fast since Chavez began his first term in 1999. Chavez has visited China six times, and more than 400 bilateral agreements have been signed during his terms.

However, if the opposition took over, the process of Latin American integration will be affected, and it will be difficult for the region's countries with leftist governments, Yuan Dongzhen, an expert on Latin American politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with China Radio International.

Cuba and many other countries in the Caribbean and Latin America have benefited from Chavez's willingness to share Venezuela's oil in pursuit of a dream of "Bolivarian" unity.

But Venezuela's opposition has vowed to end free oil to most allies.

Capriles has said that preferential oil deals for most allies, including Cuba, would quickly become a thing of the past. "To have a friend, you don't need to buy him," he said in August.

Under Venezuela's constitution, new elections must be held within 30 days if the president dies or is permanently incapacitated either before he takes office or in the first four years of his six-year term.

AFP and Reuters contributed to this story.

Contact the writer at chengguangjin@chinadaily.com.cn