US report sees Asia's global power rising by 2030

WASHINGTON - China's economy is likely to surpass the United States in less than two decades while Asia will overtake North America and Europe combined in global power by 2030, a U.S. intelligence report said on Monday.

"Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative declines," it said.

The report, "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds," was issued by the National Intelligence Council, an analytical arm of the U.S. government's Office of the Director of National Intelligence. In addition to U.S. intelligence analysts, the report includes the views of foreign and private experts.

It is the fifth report of a series - the previous one was released in 2008 - that aims to stimulate "strategic thinking" among decision makers and not to predict the future.

The health of the global economy increasingly will be linked to progress in the developing world rather than the traditional West, the report said.

"As the world's largest economic power, China is expected to remain ahead of India, but the gap could begin to close by 2030," it said.

"India's rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China's slows. In 2030 India could be the rising economic powerhouse that China is seen to be today. China's current economic growth rate - 8 to 10 percent - will probably be a distant memory by 2030."

Technology innovation

Economic growth in emerging markets was expected to drive technological innovation and flows of companies, ideas, entrepreneurs and capital to developing countries will increase, the report said.

"During the next 15-20 years, more technological activity is likely to move to the developing world as multinationals focus on the fastest-growing emerging markets and as Chinese, Indian, Brazilian, and other emerging-economy corporations rapidly become internationally competitive."

Technology will help shift power away from any one country and toward "multifaceted and amorphous networks" to influence global policies, it said.

"Technology will continue to be the great leveler. The future Internet 'moguls' - as with today's Google or Facebook -sit on mountains of data and have more real-time information at their fingertips than most governments."

That data will enable private companies to influence behavior on as large a scale as government entities.

The widespread use of new communications technologies will mean social networking will enable citizens to join together and challenge governments, as seen in Middle East, but will also provide governments "an unprecedented ability to monitor their citizens," the report said.