Science and Health
Smoking to die out in New Zealand by 2058
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2011-01-11 14:46
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WELLINGTON - Smoking could "virtually disappear" in New Zealand and many other developed countries within half a century, according to research by a major investment bank.
But Citigroup reckons the habit could be almost wiped out in Australia in as little as 20 years.
Smoking prevalence is 17 percent in Australia and 19-20 percent in New Zealand, depending on the data source, although Citigroup puts the NZ rate at 18 percent.
But even if New Zealand has gone smokefree by 2061, the epidemic of smoking-related disease and premature deaths for many smokers will linger.
"The deaths stop 20 to 50 years after smoking ends," Christchurch public health researcher Murray Laugesen said on Tuesday.
He said the Health Ministry estimated before the government announced its tobacco tax increases last April that New Zealand smoking prevalence would drop to 9 percent by 2051. He calculated that the tax rises could shave off a further 3 percentage points.
Tobacco control groups were predicting before the tax announcement that on the current rate of decline in smoking, it would take 70 years for New Zealand to become smokefree.