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Who will be next President of Afghanistan?

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-08-19 20:42

Afghan General Abdul Rashid Dostum speaks after returning from exile in Turkey during a ceremony in Shibergan in northern Afghanistan August 17, 2009. [Agencies]

Another recent development for Mr. Karzai was the arrival of Uzbek strongman, Abdul Rashid Dostum. He was living in Turkey since last year in an speculated exile.

Dostum is the most influential figure among the Uzbek population of Afghanistan. His party, Junbish-e-Milli (National Islamic Movement) has already announced support for Karzai.

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Therefore, Dostum's supporters, who had changed political loyalty to Abdullah, will now get back to Karzai thinking Dostum may play a role in the next Administration.

On Monday, former Interior Minister Mr. Jalali also announced to support Karzai. His brother addressing a press conference in Kabul said they have come to a decision to support Karzai.

Before the nomination for the elections, Mr. Jalali was an expected candidate who could give tough time to Karzai.

Chairman of the Senate Sibghatullah Mujadadi and former warlord Rasoul Sayyaf are two other known figures supporting Karzai.

Besides all those big persons above, former Finance Minister Mr. Ahady, who leads the Pushtoon nationalist Afghan Mellat Party and has influence among middle-class educated urban Pushtoons, also vowed to back the sitting president.  

In the other side, the figures supporting Dr. Abdullah, who is also a candidate of the strong opposition National Front, are Speaker Senate Younas Qanooni and Governor of Mazar-e-Sharif, Muhammad Ata Noor.

Another aspect that analysts have yet not talked about is the heavy vote from south and southeast where Taliban militants have strongholds.

Insurgents have warned to disrupt to polling and threatened Afghans to stay away from the polling centers. Among the top rivals, Mr. Karzai is the likely candidate who can gain majority votes from south with the help of the tribal setup.

A boy looks at bomb damaged cars at the site of a suicide attack in Kabul August 18, 2009. [Agencies]

Furthermore, Karzai himself came from south and was born in a family leading influential Pashtoon tribe.

Despite that Abdullah Abdullah and other opponents of Hamid Karzai expect a second round of the polls, Karzai is the probable winner of the Afghan elections with the recent withdrawals and political changes.

Some analysts held the view that Karzai may gain between 53 to 58 percent of total votes and sweep it in the first round.

However, there were others fear an Iran-like riot after the results of the Afghan elections are announced.

Optimists believed there might be some disturbance, but all the candidates are satisfied with the electoral process and the Election Commission. There might be some incidents in the stronghold of Taliban, but it won't stop the polling process or largely affect it.

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