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Health experts gauge flu outbreak
(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-05-03 16:50 US President Barack Obama also urged caution Saturday.
The global caseload was nearing 800 and growing -- the vast majority in Mexico, the US and Canada. Costa Rica reported its first confirmed case -- the first in Latin America outside Mexico. The only other fatality involved a Mexican toddler who died while in Texas. Swine flu cases have been confirmed in 18 countries so far, including Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region, and experts believe the actual spread is much wider. Scientists warn that the virus could mutate into a much deadlier form. "Influenza is unpredictable," said Dr. Tim Uyeki, an epidemiologist at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who has worked on SARS and H5N1 bird flu outbreaks. "There are so many unanswered questions. This is a brand new virus. There's so much we don't know about the human infectious with this virus." Pablo Kuri, a Mexican epidemiologist, said three of the dead were children: a 9-year-old girl, a 12-year-old girl and a 13-year-old boy. Four were older than 60. The other nine were between 21 and 39 -- unusual ages for people to die from flu because they tend to have stronger immune systems. Although most of the dead were from Mexico City, they came from different neighborhoods in the metropolis of 20 million, and there were no similarities linking their medical backgrounds. One theory for the deaths is that perhaps they sought treatment too late -- falling sick an average of seven days before seeing a doctor. For those who recovered, the average wait was three days, said Hugo Lopez-Gatell Ramirez, deputy director of Mexico's Intelligence Unit for Health Emergencies. Many of the sick around the world were people who had visited Mexico, including 13 of Britain's 15 cases. The World Health Organization earlier announced that a pandemic was imminent, but it has decided against declaring a full pandemic alert. Still, that doesn't mean people can relax, said Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO's global alert and response director. "These viruses mutate, these viruses change, these viruses can further reassort with other genetic material, with other viruses," he said. "So it would be imprudent at this point to take too much reassurance" from the small number of deaths. In the Canadian province of Alberta, health and agriculture officials said about 220 pigs on a farm were quarantined after being infected by a worker who had recently returned from Mexico. They stressed that swine viruses are common in pigs, and there was no need for consumers to stop eating pork as long as it's handled properly and cooked thoroughly. The pigs are all recovering in the first documented case of the H1N1 human flu being passed to another species. In a bid to keep crowds from gathering, causing a risk of mass contagion, the Mexican government urged political parties to abstain from holding rallies as campaigning starts Sunday for July 5 legislative elections. Interior Secretary Fernando Gomez Mont said party leaders had indicated their willingness to heed the recommendation. South Korea reported Asia's second confirmed case -- a woman just back from Mexico.
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