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Lehman rescue fails, BofA buys Merrill for $50 billion

(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-09-15 12:58

Roubini said it's difficult to accurately gauge the health of companies like Merrill because their financial health depends on how they value complex securities. As a result, their finances aren't very transparent, he said.

Security officers stand guard outside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York SSeptember 13, 2008 where deliberations resumed as leading Wall Street executives and top US financial officials tried to find a buyer or financing for the nation's No. 4 investment bank, Lehman Brothers, and to stop the crisis of confidence spreading to other US banks, brokerages, insurance companies and thrifts. [Agencies]

That can lead to a loss of confidence in the financial markets, he said, which can overwhelm an investment bank even if it is financially healthy by some measures.

"Once you lose confidence, the fundamentals matter less," he said.

Related readings: Lehman, in $4bn loss, fights for life Merrill private banking growth slows Lehman Brothers seeks a buyer Greenspan: Don't use Fed as a 'magical piggy bank' US crisis could make Japan sneeze

Ely said similar shake-outs have happened in other parts of the financial industry, such as credit cards and thrifts. Bank of America acquired independent credit card issuer MBNA in 2005, for example, while credit card company Capital One Financial Corp. has diversified itself by purchasing regional banks in Louisiana, Texas and New York.

The common denominator of the financial crisis, analysts said, is the bursting of the housing bubble. Home prices have dropped on average 25 percent so far. Roubini predicted they could drop another 15 percent.

The crisis has begun to slow the broader economy as banks make fewer loans and consumers have begun cutting spending. Many economists are now forecasting that the economy could slip into recession by the end of this year and early next year.

That, in turn, could cause additional losses for commercial banks on credit cards, auto loans and student loans.

The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 2 percent, below inflation, when it meets Tuesday. It was possible, however, that the central bank might decide in coming weeks to cut rates if such a move is seen as needed to calm turbulent financial markets.

The International Monetary Fund predicted earlier this year that total losses from the credit crisis could reach almost $1 trillion. So far, banks have only taken about $350 billion in losses.

Commercial banks are also starting to feel the pinch. Eleven have closed so far this year, including Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac Bank, which had $32 billion in assets and $19 billion in deposits.

Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, a research firm, predicts that approximately 110 banks with $850 billion in assets could close by next July. That's out of 8,400 federally insured institutions, he said, which together hold $13 trillion in assets.

Individual customers are starting to get nervous about the financial health of their banks for the first time in generations, he said. Whalen's firm analyzes the safety and soundness of banks for business clients, but began receiving inquiries from individuals in the past two months for the first time, he said.

"If we don't get ahead of this, we are going to face a run on the retail banks by election day," he said.

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