WORLD> America
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WORLD> America
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Economic models predict clear Obama win in November
(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-08-02 00:06 Headwinds Macroeconomic Advisers' model incorporates whether the candidate is from the incumbent party, approval ratings and the length of time the incumbent party has held the White House to capture the extent voters may have tired of them. Adding in its own estimates for US economic growth, the unemployment rate and the change in energy prices, it finds that McCain will get just 45 percent of the vote. "This model has correctly predicted the winning party 12 out of 14 times," Macroeconomic Advisers said. "The weak current state of the economy, and the sharp rise in energy prices pose a significant headwind to the McCain campaign, if voters weigh these factors similarly to how they have in the past," they said in a note to clients. The third work is a "Bread and Peace" model devised by Douglas Hibbs, a retired economics professor from the University of Goteborg in Sweden, who remains a senior fellow at the Center for Public Sector Research there. He finds that US presidential elections are well-predicted by just two fundamental forces: the weighted average per capita growth of real disposable income and the number of US military deaths in foreign combat. "Average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75 percent at Election Day. Moreover, cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more," he said in a June update of his model. "Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2 percent." |
