(Agencies)
Updated: 2007-11-13 14:17

US commanders assert that it is not just the larger number of US troops that has made a difference but also the way those troops operate -- closer to the Iraqi population now rather than from big, isolated US bases. Living among the Iraqis, they say, allows for a building of greater trust.

That trust, in turn, prompted more local Iraqis -- mostly Sunni Arabs but also Shiites -- to join US forces in anti-insurgent alliances, the commanders say. It also has meant more Iraqi help in finding insurgents' arms caches, reducing mortar attacks and in uncovering roadside bombs before they detonate.

Stephen Biddle of the Council on Foreign Relations, who just spent 10 days in Iraq assessing the situation for Petraeus, said a key reason for recent security gains is the emergence of the local anti-insurgent alliances -- not just in Anbar province where they began early this year but also now in and around Baghdad. A key to sustaining those security gains will be the US military's ability to police those alliances, he said.

"It's happening on a large scale basis throughout much of the country," Biddle said in an interview Friday. "The problem is how do you keep them from either turning sides again or from going to war against each other."

Also important is whether the Iraqi security forces -- Iraqi army and police -- are ready to take over from US troops. If they are not, Petraeus' strategy could fail and the whole US enterprise in Iraq could unravel. The issue is not whether the Iraqi army and police have adequate training; it's whether they are willing to use their training to enforce order without perpetuating the sectarian divides.

Brig. Gen. Stephen Gledhill, the second-in-command for training Iraqi forces, says he is confident that conditions have improved to the point where the Iraqis are capable of filling any US gaps.

"Our answer is that they not only will be able to -- they already are, and will continue to do so as they gain experience, capabilities and capacity, and not only here in Baghdad but all around the country," Gledhill said in an e-mail.

Counting on the Iraqis to take over security was at the center of the US strategy before Petraeus took over in February for Gen. George Casey. In a change of emphasis, Petraeus put a higher priority on securing the Baghdad population while continuing to develop Iraqi security forces.

Lt. Gen. Carter Ham, operations chief for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week that US officers are mindful of the consequences of withdrawing forces prematurely.

"That's the great risk, is if you do this too quickly that you could place a burden on the Iraqi security forces prior to them being ready to accept it," Ham said. He gave no indication that the military was reconsidering the decision, approved by Bush in September, to reduce by five brigades.

The commander of US forces in Baghdad, Maj. Gen. Joseph Fil of the 1st Cavalry Division, told reporters Nov. 6 that it was too early to declare victory over al-Qaida in Iraq, the mainly Iraqi terrorist organization that has been a chief target of US offensive operations in recent months.

But Fil said it was now clear that US forces, with Iraqi help, have gained the upper hand in Baghdad.

"Perhaps even most significantly, the Iraqi people have just decided they've had it up to here with violence," he said, echoing the assertion of numerous other commanders that one of the most important developments since early summer has been an erosion of what some call a culture of fear in Baghdad.

Their belief is that the tide has turned in favor of the forces of moderation. But will it last?

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