Who will win the ICC World T20 tournament? Tym Glaser has no clue, but if he had to put money on it, he would go for the world's most in-form side.

If you like lotteries and other games of chance, you'll simply love the ICC World Twenty20 tournament, which swings into action in Sri Lanka on Tuesday.

Not even the most earnest of cricket pundits has any real idea which way the balls will drop in the fourth installment of the most abbreviated form of the international game's biggest event.

It's probably fair to assume ICC associate nations Ireland and rapidly improving Afghanistan are not likely to be holding the trophy aloft on Oct 7, but both are capable of pulling off shocks in their respective groups. Ireland has already shown its ability to defy the odds with upset victories over Pakistan (2007) and England (2011) at the World Cup.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan was in no way humbled when it faced Australia in a one-off ODI in Sharjah in August, when it lost by 66 runs, gamely chasing the Aussies' 272.

Both of those sides probably have more of a chance of pulling off an upset in the group stage than full member nation (without Test status) Zimbabwe, which is emerging from years in the doldrums and appears to still have some way to go.

That leaves the Test-playing nations, and here the lottery begins.

Like its distant cousin, baseball, cricket is basically an individual sport played within a team format. One man throws the ball and another man hits it. The shorter the game, the more likely a single player can influence the result, thus it is with T20. One blazing innings or scintillating spell of bowling and a T20 game is usually done and dusted.

This format ideally suits the world's two most maverick sides, the West indies and Pakistan, who both struggle at the five-day Test level more often than not, but sparkle the less time they have to think about the game.

In Christopher Henry Gayle, the West Indies have the most devastating batsman in the game - across all three forms - and, if there is a nominal favorite, it could be the men in maroon from the Caribbean.

Pakistan beat Australia 2-1 in a World T20 warm-up event this month in Asia and boast crafty each-way spinner Saeed Ajmal, perhaps the world's best at that craft at the moment.

New Zealand always seems to punch above its weight at international tournaments, but then comes up crops in the semis. The Australians look disorientated in this form of the game and are ranked ninth, below Bangladesh and just above the Irish.

Defending champion England is in a nasty spat with the MVP of the 2010 tournament, Kevin Pietersen, and looks almost as disorganzied as its traditional rival, Australia.

Host Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh should relish the sub-continental conditions, with M.S. Dhoni's team having the brighter hopes as it chases the T20 trophy to place alongside its World Cup.

Still, overlook the Sri Lankans at your peril. The bowling looks thin (outside of Lasith Malinga), but Mahela Jayawardene and Kumar Sangakarra are seasoned veterans at all forms of the game - and all class.

However, if I had to throw a few Maos down, it would be on in-form South Africa. It just drew its T20 series against England 1-1, but players of the ilk of A.B. de Villiers, Hashim Amla, Jacques Kallis, Morne Morkel and Dale Steyn are way overdue for an international cricket crown, which would allow them to finally throw away that horrid "choker" tag.

(China Daily 09/16/2012 page8)