2016 US election: Will US-China relations change?

Trump’s America: Defense has a (new) price

According to Pew, two out of five Chinese see Trump unfavorably, or have no opinion about him, while only one of five sees him favorably. Trump’s negative ratings have been boosted by his many references to China as an economic rival, political adversary and military threat. But his discontent includes much more of Asia.

In foreign trade, Trump has pledged to tear up or renegotiate the TPP agreement which has potential to undermine Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s economic reforms and controversial security agenda. It would be a huge embarrassment to the ASEAN nations that have joined the TPP. To reduce the US trade deficit with the region, Trump would raise trade rhetoric, tariffs and import duties against China, Japan and low-cost ASEAN.

Indeed, some of his murmurings – whether NATO is still relevant, a more stable Middle East if Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi were in power, mutual admiration with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and so on – suggest that Trump might focus his attention on renegotiating better deals and undermining bad ones.

If Trump would go after US allies Japan and South Korea, America’s postwar defense system in Asia would crumble. Due to his “America first” stance, Trump would reassess US economic and security pacts around the world. He gave his first foreign policy speech at the Nixon Center, which stresses foreign policy realism, not interventionism.

What next?

Would Clinton - or Trump - walk the talk? Despite a series of critical references to China, Clinton has a track-record of cooperation with China and Trump is a pragmatic deal-maker.

However, a militarized US pivot to Asia has potential to split the region and defer the economic catch-up of an emerging Asia. That would not only slow China’s rise but undermine the promise of the Asian Century and America’s own security interest.

Dr Dan Steinbock is Guest Fellow of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS). This commentary is based on his SIIS project on “China and the multipolar world economy.”