Russia's growing China connection

Yet, none of that will be easy, or happen automatically. The Chinese economy is slowing, which has also brought down the price of oil, a factor of central importance to Russia. Major Chinese banks, with their close links to the US financial market, are not willing to lend to those Russians who find themselves under Western sanctions. In any event, borrowing costs in China are significantly higher than in Europe. To implement the ambitious agenda for expanding economic ties, Chinese and Russian business leaders need to get to know the partner country so much better.

Russians need to do a thorough research of the opportunities that exist in the Chinese market. They need to better understand the Chinese culture, and not only that of business operations. They need to raise a cohort of modern China experts, well-versed in the language and the ways of the land. This will probably require many years of a sustained and purposeful effort, which will not pay off immediately. High-level meetings are vital to create momentum and sustain it, but the going itself will have to be the work of the two peoples.

The China connection will not turn Russia into an Asian country. It will remain what it has always been: an Eastern European civilization, spanning northern Eurasia from the Baltic to the Pacific. The present crisis in Russia's relations with the West will eventually be resolved, and a new equilibrium in relations will be created, depending on the outcome of the current rivalry. In any event, Russia will doubtless maintain close economic, but also cultural ties with the European Union. Even though China, since 2009, has been Russia's leading trading partner, the combined trade between Russia and the EU is several times bigger than the Sino-Russian exchanges.

Rather than "replacing" Europe with China in its foreign policy universe, Russia would be wise to develop its relations with China closer to the level of the very thick ties which link it to its European neighbors. If the Western sanctions help Russians to take a closer look at China, and to see opportunities in the east, it will be one good thing that they will have accomplished.

The author is director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.