Policy relaxing needs to be gradual

There are some who argue that the family planning policy should be relaxed to allow all couples a second child.

Immediately easing the family planning policy to allow all families to have a second child would alleviate the aging problem and labor shortage. But the rapid population growth in the short term would result in a more unbalanced population structure, and it would finally break China's population control target of 1.5 billion. Rapid population growth over a short period would place a heavy, and possibly unbearable, burden on hospitals, kindergartens and schools. China's basic national demographic conditions haven't drastically changed much: China still has a huge population and a shortage of per capital resources. If China's overall population exceeds 1.5 billion, it will have negative effects on resources, the environment and food supply, which goes against sustainable development.

China has adopted an adjusted family planning policy to allow couples where either the husband or the wife is the only child to have a second child, which will release a part of accumulated fertility power. This policy will add 2 to 3 million new births every year, which public services will be able to cope with.

If we can gradually adjust and improve the family planning policy, there will be less accumulated fertility power and less yearly population growth, and China's strategic population target of 1.5 billion will not be exceeded.

A country's population is the main body and base of its economy and demographic change will have a long-term, profound and overall influence on society. Currently the demographic policy is still the main factor that determines population changes. Therefore, the adjustment of demographic policy should consider both the present and the future; and take into account economic, social and resource factors. Current conditions mean the time is not yet ripe for immediately and completely relaxing the family planning policy. It is better to gradually release part of the accumulated fertility power and further adjust family planning policy after a few years, which will lead to a more balanced population that can support economic and social development.

The author is director of the School of Sociology and Population Studies at Renmin University of China.