US caught in dilemma over Egypt

Despite suffering repeated blows since its establishment in 1928, the Muslim Brotherhood survived to emerge as the most powerful "political" force after the ouster of Mubarak. The Brotherhood can also use Mubarak's release to accuse the military of launching a "coup" to "kill" democracy and restore authoritarian rule in Egypt.

Moreover, liberals who oppose the release of Mubarak and advocate a complete shift from the old regime could withdraw support to the interim government.

The crackdown on the Brotherhood can have two possible outcomes. The first is an internal division within the Brotherhood, prompting the moderate faction to accept a compromise, even conditionally, at the negotiation table. This is precisely what the interim government expects. The other result would be an increase in violence leading to heavy casualties, with the Brotherhood going underground but continuing its demands and launching attacks against the interim government. This will deteriorate the situation and make a political resolution to the conflict almost impossible and throw the entire Middle East into chaos.

Middle East countries are divided over how to deal with the Egyptian crisis. Tunisia and Turkey support the Brotherhood while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates support the Egyptian military.

Amid all this, the US has exhibited an ambiguous stance. It won't be wrong to say that Washington is in a dilemma over how to respond to the mess in Egypt because of the policy it pursues. Given its commitment to democracy, the US should support Morsi and oppose the military for overthrowing a democratically elected government.

But because of its interests in the Middle East and the fact that its regional allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, see the Brotherhood and other Islamic forces as a big security threat, the US has to adopt an ambiguous stance, giving the Egyptian military a tacit nod to use strong measures to quell domestic unrest as quickly as possible.

The author is a senior fellow at the Chahar Institute and a research scholar at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.